Alberta polls
Provincial voting intention. Each poll is corrected for its firm's lean against the other firms, then weighted by recency and sample size.
Trend
The house-effect-corrected average over the past two years. The band around each line is the uncertainty on that average, which is the part worth reading: where two bands overlap, the order of those two parties is not established.
Weighted average
as of Nov 3, 2026- UCP45.1%
- NDP44.6%
- Progressive Tory4.1%
- Liberal1.9%
- Green1.4%
- Other3.0%
Each firm counts once, through its latest poll. Weights combine a recency decay with a 30-day half-life and the poll's sample size, over a 90-day window: between elections Alberta is polled about once a month, by Léger more than anyone, so counting every poll would let the busiest firm set the average. Every poll reports the UCP and the NDP; the rest of the vote is averaged as one bloc and split among the Progressive Tories, the Liberals and the Greens by each one's share of it in the polls that name them, with the Republicans and the Wildrose parties left in Others. When fewer than three firms have published in the window, the average reaches back to the three most recent.
Since the 2023 election (46 polls)
| Firm | Field dates | UCP | NDP | Progressive Tory | Liberal | Green | Republican | Other | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | Oct 15, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | 43 | 6 | – | 3 | – | 6 | 825 |
| Pollara | Oct 2, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026 | 46 | 50 | – | – | – | – | 4 | 1347 |
| Abacus Data | Oct 7, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026 | 47 | 42 | 6 | – | – | – | 5 | 1021 |
| Léger | Oct 2, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026 | 47 | 45 | – | – | – | – | 9 | 1001 |
| Janet Brown Opinion Research | Sep 8, 2026 – Sep 21, 2026 | 41 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1200 |
| Abacus Data | Sep 4, 2026 – Sep 7, 2026 | 52 | 39 | 6 | – | – | – | 3 | 1000 |
| Research Co. | Aug 24, 2026 – Aug 26, 2026 | 46 | 43 | 5 | – | – | 2 | 4 | 750 |
| Léger | Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 23, 2026 | 51 | 41 | – | – | – | – | 9 | 1001 |
| Ipsos | May 28, 2026 – Jun 1, 2026 | 48 | 45 | – | – | – | – | 6 | 600 |
| Léger | May 29, 2026 – Jun 1, 2026 | 49 | 40 | – | – | – | – | 11 | 1014 |
| Angus Reid | May 22, 2026 – May 24, 2026 | 46 | 45 | 4 | – | 0 | – | 4 | 800 |
| Probe Research | Apr 27, 2026 – May 6, 2026 | 46 | 39 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1484 |
| Janet Brown Opinion Research | Apr 7, 2026 – Apr 22, 2026 | 49 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1200 |
| Mainstreet Research | Apr 20, 2026 – Apr 22, 2026 | 46 | 42 | 4 | – | 3 | – | 6 | 3129 |
| Léger | Apr 3, 2026 – Apr 6, 2026 | 53 | 36 | – | – | – | – | 11 | 1003 |
| Pollara | Mar 16, 2026 – Mar 25, 2026 | 49 | 42 | – | – | – | – | 9 | 3200 |
| Léger | Mar 2, 2026 – Mar 4, 2026 | 48 | 36 | 5 | 3 | 4 | – | 3 | 1001 |
| Abacus Data | Feb 20, 2026 – Feb 25, 2026 | 49 | 36 | 2 | 9 | 2 | – | 3 | 1000 |
| Mainstreet Research | Feb 10, 2026 – Feb 12, 2026 | 48 | 40 | 3 | 6 | – | 1 | 2 | 1504 |
| Léger | Jan 23, 2026 – Jan 26, 2026 | 50 | 37 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1003 |
| Liaison Strategies | Jan 7, 2026 – Jan 11, 2026 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 2 | – | 2 | 1000 |
| Angus Reid | Nov 26, 2025 – Dec 1, 2025 | 48 | 45 | 4 | 3 | – | – | 1 | 362 |
| Léger | Oct 10, 2025 – Oct 12, 2025 | 44 | 39 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1045 |
| Cardinal Research | Sep 17, 2025 – Sep 20, 2025 | 43 | 36 | 4 | 5 | – | 11 | 1 | 2626 |
| Angus Reid | Aug 28, 2025 – Sep 5, 2025 | 51 | 40 | 4 | 3 | – | – | 1 | 431 |
| Léger | May 23, 2025 – May 25, 2025 | 48 | 34 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1040 |
| Janet Brown Opinion Research | May 7, 2025 – May 21, 2025 | 52 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 1 | – | 5 | 1200 |
| Abacus Data | May 15, 2025 – May 21, 2025 | 58 | 32 | – | – | – | – | 10 | 400 |
| Environics | Apr 2, 2025 – Apr 14, 2025 | 43 | 47 | 6 | – | – | – | 4 | 1003 |
| Mainstreet Research | Mar 18, 2025 | 51 | 39 | – | 3 | 2 | – | 4 | 1228 |
| Léger | Jan 24, 2025 – Jan 26, 2025 | 51 | 36 | 3 | 5 | 2 | – | 3 | 1002 |
| Cardinal Research | Sep 17, 2024 – Sep 28, 2024 | 50 | 43 | 1 | – | 2 | – | 4 | 1553 |
| Léger | Aug 2, 2024 – Aug 5, 2024 | 48 | 40 | 4 | 3 | 3 | – | 4 | 1005 |
| Sovereign North | Jul 6, 2024 – Jul 11, 2024 | 47 | 46 | 4 | – | 1 | – | 2 | 2861 |
| Abacus Data | Jun 25, 2024 – Jun 28, 2024 | 54 | 40 | – | – | – | – | 6 | 1000 |
| Léger | May 22, 2024 – May 25, 2024 | 47 | 43 | 6 | – | – | – | 4 | 1009 |
| Léger | Mar 22, 2024 – Mar 24, 2024 | 46 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 1 | – | 3 | 1002 |
| Abacus Data | Mar 14, 2024 – Mar 21, 2024 | 55 | 40 | 2 | – | – | – | 2 | 1000 |
| Pallas Data | Mar 12, 2024 – Mar 13, 2024 | 52 | 45 | – | – | – | – | 3 | 868 |
| Léger | Mar 8, 2024 – Mar 11, 2024 | 49 | 41 | 6 | – | – | – | 4 | 1001 |
| Léger | Feb 9, 2024 – Feb 12, 2024 | 49 | 42 | 5 | – | – | – | 4 | 1002 |
| Léger | Jan 19, 2024 – Jan 22, 2024 | 51 | 40 | – | – | – | – | 9 | 1001 |
| Léger | Jan 12, 2024 – Jan 15, 2024 | 50 | 43 | 3 | – | – | – | 4 | 1012 |
| Angus Reid | Nov 24, 2023 – Dec 1, 2023 | 53 | 40 | 3 | 2 | – | – | 1 | 392 |
| Léger | Oct 27, 2023 – Oct 30, 2023 | 46 | 47 | 5 | – | – | – | 2 | 1001 |
| Léger | Sep 15, 2023 – Sep 18, 2023 | 49 | 39 | 4 | 3 | 2 | – | 3 | 1001 |
A dash means the party was not offered as an option in that poll, which is different from polling at zero. Others includes the two Wildrose parties where a pollster names them, as the average counts them.
House effects
Each firm's final-week polls in 2019 and 2023 against the certified result, averaged within each election and then across them, shrunk toward zero when few elections support them.
Between elections, only each firm's lean relative to the others is applied. The error they share (every firm ran the UCP low in the final week of 2019 and 2023, by about two points after shrinkage) is added back once a campaign starts.
| Firm | UCP | NDP | Progressive Tory | Liberal | Green | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Data | +1.13 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.40 | -0.15 | -0.24 |
| Counsel Public Affairs | -1.87 | -0.62 | +1.21 | +1.19 | -0.15 | +0.56 |
| EKOS Research | +1.27 | -0.19 | -0.22 | -0.35 | -0.15 | -0.41 |
| Forum Research | +0.39 | -0.73 | +0.39 | – | +0.13 | +0.46 |
| Ipsos | +0.39 | +1.05 | -0.91 | -0.40 | -0.15 | +0.23 |
| Janet Brown Opinion Research | +1.80 | -1.27 | -0.12 | -0.15 | -0.07 | +0.23 |
| Léger | -0.11 | +0.05 | -0.42 | +0.27 | -0.07 | +0.23 |
| Mainstreet Research | -0.71 | +0.99 | -0.22 | – | +0.07 | -0.37 |
| Nanos Research | -1.51 | – | +0.75 | +0.34 | -0.15 | -0.17 |
| Oraclepoll Research | +0.80 | -0.62 | +0.21 | -0.40 | +0.60 | -0.24 |
| Pollara | -1.28 | +0.67 | -0.58 | +0.44 | -0.15 | -0.40 |
| Research Co. | -0.11 | +0.80 | -0.22 | -0.06 | -0.07 | +0.23 |
| Sovereign North | -0.20 | +0.05 | +0.21 | -0.40 | +0.26 | -0.11 |
A positive figure means the firm's final polls ran that party high against the certified result, so the correction subtracts it. Alberta offers two elections on today's party system to calibrate against, so these are directional, not precise.