Ontario polls
Provincial voting intention. Each poll is corrected for its firm's measured lean against the other firms, then weighted by recency and sample size.
Trend
The weighted average over the past two years. The band around each line is the uncertainty on that average, which is the part worth reading: where two bands overlap, the order of those two parties is not established.
Weighted average
as of Nov 3, 2026- PC39.5%
- Liberal30.7%
- NDP21.8%
- Green4.0%
- Other4.0%
Each firm counts once, through its latest poll. Weights combine a recency decay with a 30-day half-life and the poll's sample size, over a 90-day window: between elections Ontario is polled about twice a month, so a campaign's seven-day half-life would let the newest poll stand in for the whole average. When fewer than three firms have published in the window, the average reaches back to the three most recent. The share outside the PCs, Liberals and NDP is averaged as one bloc; the Greens take their part of it from the polls that report them, and Others are the rest.
Since the 2025 election (49 polls)
| Firm | Field dates | PC | Liberal | NDP | Green | Other | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Data | Oct 19, 2026 | 40 | 32 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 2291 |
| Mainstreet Research | Sep 29, 2026 | 34 | 26 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 1203 |
| Liaison Strategies | Sep 19, 2026 | 40 | 34 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 1600 |
| Liaison Strategies | Aug 24, 2026 | 39 | 35 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 1500 |
| Abacus Data | Aug 24, 2026 | 42 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 1518 |
| Pallas Data | Aug 9, 2026 | 37 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 1105 |
| Liaison Strategies | Jul 21, 2026 | 33 | 38 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1000 |
| EKOS Research | Jul 16, 2026 | 32 | 26 | 28 | 5 | 9 | 1512 |
| Abacus Data | Jun 17, 2026 | 41 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 2182 |
| Liaison Strategies | Jun 15, 2026 | 35 | 38 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 1000 |
| Abacus Data | May 20, 2026 | 41 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 1017 |
| Liaison Strategies | May 16, 2026 | 37 | 37 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1000 |
| Léger | May 11, 2026 | 39 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 1003 |
| Mainstreet Research | May 7, 2026 | 35 | 31 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 910 |
| Liaison Strategies | Apr 26, 2026 | 36 | 38 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1000 |
| Pallas Data | Apr 22, 2026 | 37 | 32 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 1007 |
| Abacus Data | Apr 21, 2026 | 37 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 1000 |
| Pallas Data | Apr 8, 2026 | 40 | 31 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 1084 |
| Abacus Data | Apr 6, 2026 | 39 | 31 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 2185 |
| Liaison Strategies | Mar 29, 2026 | 39 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1000 |
| Abacus Data | Mar 11, 2026 | 44 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 1000 |
| Ipsos | Mar 11, 2026 | 42 | 35 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 801 |
| Liaison Strategies | Feb 22, 2026 | 40 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 1000 |
| Abacus Data | Feb 10, 2026 | 44 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 1001 |
| Pallas Data | Jan 24, 2026 | 43 | 30 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 1015 |
| Liaison Strategies | Jan 21, 2026 | 42 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1000 |
| Abacus Data | Jan 13, 2026 | 48 | 22 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 1006 |
| Liaison Strategies | Dec 7, 2025 | 44 | 35 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 1000 |
| Angus Reid | Dec 1, 2025 | 41 | 28 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 723 |
| Pallas Data | Nov 15, 2025 | 45 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 1077 |
| North Poll Strategies | Nov 7, 2025 | 46 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 742 |
| Abacus Data | Nov 6, 2025 | 51 | 23 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 1000 |
| Léger | Oct 20, 2025 | 44 | 32 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1052 |
| Abacus Data | Oct 15, 2025 | 51 | 25 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1000 |
| Liaison Strategies | Oct 15, 2025 | 47 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 800 |
| Relay Strategies | Oct 13, 2025 | 44 | 29 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 1268 |
| Mainstreet Research | Sep 18, 2025 | 48 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 958 |
| Abacus Data | Sep 17, 2025 | 52 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 1021 |
| Angus Reid | Sep 5, 2025 | 45 | 25 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 935 |
| Pallas Data | Sep 4, 2025 | 45 | 26 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 1026 |
| Abacus Data | Aug 19, 2025 | 53 | 27 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1037 |
| Liaison Strategies | Aug 14, 2025 | 44 | 35 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 800 |
| Abacus Data | Jul 15, 2025 | 50 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1000 |
| Pallas Data | Jun 29, 2025 | 43 | 29 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1080 |
| Mainstreet Research | Jun 26, 2025 | 41 | 32 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 923 |
| Abacus Data | Jun 5, 2025 | 49 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 1000 |
| Léger | May 25, 2025 | 45 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 1025 |
| Liaison Strategies | May 9, 2025 | 46 | 36 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1000 |
| Campaign Research | Mar 26, 2025 | 46 | 24 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 1672 |
A dash means the party was not offered as an option in that poll, which is different from polling at zero.
House effects
Each firm's final-week polls in 2014, 2018, 2022 and 2025 against the certified result, averaged within each election and then across them, shrunk toward zero when few elections support them.
Between elections, only each firm's lean relative to the others is applied. The error they share, which has changed direction from one election to the next, is added back once a campaign starts.
| Firm | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Data | -1.02 | +0.34 | +0.27 | -0.38 | +0.48 |
| Angus Reid | +0.25 | +0.69 | -0.85 | -0.25 | -0.10 |
| Counsel Public Affairs | -0.42 | -0.47 | +0.44 | +0.13 | +0.05 |
| Earnscliffe/Leger | -0.62 | – | +0.74 | -0.57 | +0.20 |
| EKOS Research | -0.61 | -0.61 | -0.54 | +0.94 | +0.63 |
| Forum Research | – | -0.44 | +0.80 | -0.25 | -0.19 |
| Innovative Research Group | -1.22 | -0.50 | +1.70 | +0.68 | -0.76 |
| Ipsos | +0.73 | +1.25 | -1.40 | -0.20 | +0.90 |
| Léger | +1.23 | -0.16 | -0.65 | -0.19 | +0.31 |
| Liaison Strategies | -0.34 | -0.24 | +0.72 | -0.19 | -0.17 |
| Mainstreet Research | -1.08 | -0.25 | +0.76 | +0.29 | +0.12 |
| Nanos Research | – | -0.06 | +0.46 | -0.05 | -0.49 |
| Oraclepoll Research | +1.58 | – | -1.18 | -0.25 | +0.05 |
| Pallas Data | +0.99 | -0.57 | -0.28 | -0.19 | -0.51 |
| Pollara | -0.84 | +1.16 | -0.32 | +0.05 | -0.11 |
| Relay Strategies | +1.49 | -0.57 | -0.95 | +0.81 | +0.05 |
| Research Co. | -0.17 | +0.37 | +0.35 | -0.33 | -0.54 |
A positive figure means the firm's final polls ran that party high against the certified result, so the correction subtracts it. Ontario's polls have landed close in all four elections, so these are small, and directional rather than precise.