If an election were held today
Green majority
78% chance of a majority · 16 of 27 seats expected
Outcome odds, if an election were held today
- Green majority78%
- Green most seats, no majority19%
- Tie for most seats1%
- Liberal most seats, no majority1%
Election due by October 4, 2027
Seats won
bar = 80% range▲▼ change from seats held today14 to govern
- Green16▲1212 seats more than it holds today12–20 likelyMatt MacFarlane
more likely than not to win a majority
Liberal6▲22 seats more than it holds today4–8 likelyHal Perry (interim)
PC5▼1313 seats fewer than it holds today1–8 likelyRob Lantz
NDP00–0 likelyThomas Burleigh
Districts projected to change party
(15)Districts where the projected winner is a different party from the one holding the seat now. Left dot is who holds it, right is who takes it.
DistrictChangeChance
Projected change
Paler = too close to call
16▲ 12 vs today
6▲ 2 vs today
5▼ 13 vs today