If an election were held today
Liberal majority
59% chance of a majority · 21 of 40 seats expected
Outcome odds, if an election were held today
- Liberal majority59%
- Liberal most seats, no majority22%
- Progressive Conservative most seats, no majority12%
- Progressive Conservative majority4%
- Tie for most seats4%
Election set for Tuesday, October 9, 2029, or Monday, November 26 if it would overlap the federal election
Seats won
bar = 80% range▲▼ change from seats held today21 to govern
- Liberal21▲66 seats more than it holds today16–26 likelyJohn Hogan
a little more likely than not to win a majority
PC14▼66 seats fewer than it holds today10–19 likelyTony Wakeham
NDP3▲11 seat more than it holds today2–4 likelyJim Dinn- INIndependent2▼11 seat fewer than it holds today2–2 likely
Projected on the 40 districts of the 2015 map, on which the 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2025 elections were fought. The Electoral Boundaries Act calls for a commission in 2026 to redraw the 40 districts, so the next election will probably be fought on new lines.
Districts projected to change party
(8)Districts where the projected winner is a different party from the one holding the seat now. Left dot is who holds it, right is who takes it.
DistrictChangeChance
Projected change
Paler = too close to call
21▲ 6 vs today
14▼ 6 vs today
3▲ 1 vs today
IN
2▼ 1 vs today