Your district
Find your district, and who represents it.
Your MHA, how your district voted in 2025, and what the polls point to there now.
The House today
Progressive Conservative government, short of a majority
Progressive Conservative: 20 of 40 seats. A majority is 21. The Speaker, Paul Lane, is an independent who votes only to break a tie, so on the floor the government has 20 votes to the opposition's 19.
No election has been called. The next general election is set by law for Tuesday, October 9, 2029, 1,071 days from now, or Monday, November 26 if it would overlap the federal election; it can be called sooner.
Who governs
Since the 2025 election, 1 seat has changed party.
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Newfoundland and Labrador, in your inbox.
Our Newfoundland and Labrador coverage as the polls move, plus a profile of every federal riding, one at a time.
- The 343A profile of every riding: the place, the people who have represented it, what decides it.
- Field NotesLong-form analysis of what is moving, and why.
- When things moveA note when the model shifts, new polls land or a riding flips.
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If an election were held today
Nov 3, 2026Liberal majority
59% chance of a majority · 21 of 40 seats expected
16–26 seats in 80% of simulations · 21 needed
- Liberal majority59%
- Liberal most seats, no majority22%
- Progressive Conservative most seats, no majority12%
- Progressive Conservative majority4%
- Tie for most seats4%
Election set for Tuesday, October 9, 2029, or Monday, November 26 if it would overlap the federal election
Too close to call
- Labrador WestLiberal vs Progressive ConservativeLiberal50%PC43%
- FerrylandProgressive Conservative vs LiberalPC52%Liberal48%
- Fogo Island–Cape FreelsLiberal vs Progressive ConservativeLiberal53%PC47%
- Lake MelvilleLiberal vs Progressive ConservativeLiberal59%PC35%
- Waterford ValleyLiberal vs NL NDPLiberal64%NDP36%
- Carbonear–Trinity–Bay de VerdeLiberal vs Progressive ConservativeLiberal67%PC33%
How close 2025 was
4 districts were decided by under five points, and 11 by under ten. Small moves in the provincial vote move seats. See how the average is built.
Where the polls stand
Every provincial poll since the 2025 election, averaged by recency and sample size.
Liberal and PC, too close to call
The average on Nov 3, 2026: Liberal 40.6% · PC 33.4% · NDP 24.1%
- In today's average
- 3 polls
- Weighted by recency and sample size
- Since the 2025 election
- 3 polls
- From 2 firms
Latest polls
What you can do here
Map
40 districts by projected winner.All 40 districts, coloured by projected winner, with the win probability behind every one.
Open the map →Polls
Every poll, and the average.Every provincial poll, and the weighted average built from them.
See the polls →Legislature
Standings and the cabinet.Standings in the 40-seat House of Assembly and who holds each cabinet portfolio.
See the House →Districts
2025 results, district by district.The certified 2025 result, the margin, and the census profile for every district.
Browse districts →Projections are a swing model over the certified 2025 result, not a poll of polls dressed up as seats.
How the average is built →Data sources
Elections Newfoundland and Labrador (results) · Open Data NL (boundaries, Open Government Licence – Newfoundland and Labrador) · Statistics Canada (2021 Census) · Wikipedia (polls)
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