Carbonear–Trinity–Bay de Verde
MHA: Riley Balsom · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; the next election is set for Tuesday, October 9, 2029, or Monday, November 26 if it would overlap the federal election.
Liberal67% chance of winning
- Liberal · 41.8% projected vote67%
- Progressive Conservative · 38.6% projected vote33%
2025 result
- Riley Balsom · Progressive Conservativeelected3,45949.9%
- Danielle Doyle · Liberal3,08544.5%
- Kathleen E. Burt · NL NDP2423.5%
- Alison Coffin · Independent1341.9%
- Edward Thomas Cole · Independent150.2%
- Margin
- 5.4%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 63.5%
- Registered
- 10,922
2021 result
The pandemic election: in-person voting on polling day was cancelled the day before, so apart from the advance polls the vote was by mail, and the results were announced on March 27, 2021.
- Steve Crocker · Liberalelected3,89267.5%
- Frank Butt · Progressive Conservative1,59627.7%
- Matt Smith · NL NDP2614.5%
- Edward Thomas Cole · Independent140.2%
2019 result
- Steve M. Crocker · Liberalelected4,29260.3%
- Jason Oliver · Progressive Conservative2,42234.0%
- Kathleen E. Burt · NL NDP3535.0%
- Edward Thomas Cole · Independent530.7%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Newfoundland and Labrador's provincial districts, so these are built from the dissemination areas inside each one, an area crossed by a boundary divided by where its people live: counts are weighted sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 40 districts.
- Median household income
- $58,00035 of 40
- Average rent
- $78526 of 40
- Renters
- 14.0%31 of 40
- Bachelor's or higher
- 7.2%30 of 40
- Median age
- 55.48 of 40
- Over 65
- 31.2%6 of 40
- Visible minority
- 1.0%20 of 40
- Immigrants
- 1.2%24 of 40
- Indigenous identity
- 1.9%33 of 40
- Unemployment
- 18.8%14 of 40
Closest races, Avalon–Burin
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Results: Elections Newfoundland and Labrador. Boundaries: contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Newfoundland and Labrador. Census profile: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population, combined into districts by NorthernVibe.