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Avalon–BurinSafeRural

Placentia–St. Mary's

MHA: Sherry Gambin-Walsh · Liberal

Projected winner

If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; the next election is set for Tuesday, October 9, 2029, or Monday, November 26 if it would overlap the federal election.

Liberal>99% chance of winning

  • Liberal · 49.2% projected vote>99%
  • Progressive Conservative · 31.6% projected vote<1%

2025 result

  • Sherry Gambin-Walsh · Liberalelected2,97249.9%
  • Rhonda Power · Progressive Conservative2,47041.5%
  • Philip Gardiner · Independent3385.7%
  • Douglas Meggison · NL NDP1763.0%
Margin
8.4%
Tier
Swing
Turnout
67.8%
Registered
8,782

2021 result

The pandemic election: in-person voting on polling day was cancelled the day before, so apart from the advance polls the vote was by mail, and the results were announced on March 27, 2021.

  • Sherry Gambin-Walsh · Liberalelected2,55250.9%
  • Calvin Manning · Progressive Conservative2,33646.5%
  • Clem J. Whittle · NL Alliance1312.6%

2019 result

  • Sherry Gambin-Walsh · Liberalelected2,76447.4%
  • Hilda Whelan · Progressive Conservative2,24538.5%
  • Steve Thorne · Independent82414.1%

District at a glance

2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Newfoundland and Labrador's provincial districts, so these are built from the dissemination areas inside each one, an area crossed by a boundary divided by where its people live: counts are weighted sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 40 districts.

Median household income
$62,50027 of 40
Average rent
$71234 of 40
Renters
11.5%36 of 40
Bachelor's or higher
8.5%28 of 40
Median age
56.92 of 40
Over 65
32.3%3 of 40
Visible minority
0.2%35 of 40
Immigrants
1.2%23 of 40
Indigenous identity
1.4%40 of 40
Unemployment
19.9%11 of 40

Closest races, Avalon–Burin

The seats most likely to move with this one.

Results: Elections Newfoundland and Labrador. Boundaries: contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Newfoundland and Labrador. Census profile: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population, combined into districts by NorthernVibe.