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Avalon–BurinLeanRural

Placentia West–Bellevue

MHA: Jeff Dwyer · Progressive Conservative

Projected winner

If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; the next election is set for Tuesday, October 9, 2029, or Monday, November 26 if it would overlap the federal election.

Liberal86% chance of winning

  • Liberal · 42.3% projected vote86%
  • Progressive Conservative · 34.8% projected vote14%

2025 result

  • Jeff Dwyer · Progressive Conservativeelected2,64147.1%
  • Brian Keating · Liberal2,57746.0%
  • Jasmine Paul · NL NDP3886.9%
Margin
1.1%
Tier
Toss-up
Turnout
57.5%
Registered
9,753

2021 result

The pandemic election: in-person voting on polling day was cancelled the day before, so apart from the advance polls the vote was by mail, and the results were announced on March 27, 2021.

  • Jeff Dwyer · Progressive Conservativeelected2,96554.3%
  • Sam Synard · Liberal2,30442.2%
  • Carolyn A. Davis · NL NDP1893.5%

2019 result

  • Jeff Dwyer · Progressive Conservativeelected3,36355.8%
  • Mark Browne · Liberal2,66744.2%

District at a glance

2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Newfoundland and Labrador's provincial districts, so these are built from the dissemination areas inside each one, an area crossed by a boundary divided by where its people live: counts are weighted sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 40 districts.

Median household income
$61,00031 of 40
Average rent
$72832 of 40
Renters
16.5%25 of 40
Bachelor's or higher
7.1%31 of 40
Median age
54.512 of 40
Over 65
29.7%11 of 40
Visible minority
0.3%31 of 40
Immigrants
0.8%30 of 40
Indigenous identity
1.8%35 of 40
Unemployment
21.3%9 of 40

Closest races, Avalon–Burin

The seats most likely to move with this one.

Results: Elections Newfoundland and Labrador. Boundaries: contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Newfoundland and Labrador. Census profile: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population, combined into districts by NorthernVibe.