Tuxedo
MLA: Carla Compton · Manitoba NDP
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 2, 2026; the next election is set for Tuesday, October 5, 2027.
Manitoba NDP>99% chance of winning
- Manitoba NDP · 54.1% projected vote>99%
2024 by-election
Shown for the record. The projection starts from the 2023 general election instead; where a by-election changed the seat's party, the new member's personal vote is added to that party.
- Carla Compton · Manitoba NDPelected3,77749.4%
- Lawrence Pinsky · Progressive Conservative3,17541.6%
- Jamie Pfau · Liberal5697.5%
- Janine G. Gibson · Green1181.5%
2023 result
- Heather Stefanson · Progressive Conservativeelected3,96840.2%
- Larissa Ashdown · Manitoba NDP3,70037.5%
- Marc Brandson · Liberal2,20122.3%
- Margin
- 2.7%
- Tier
- Toss-up
- Turnout
- 59.6%
- Registered
- 16,554
2019 result
- Heather Stefanson · Progressive Conservativeelected4,64547.9%
- Marc Brandson · Liberal2,28723.6%
- Carla Compton · Manitoba NDP1,92119.8%
- Kristin Lauhn-Jensen · Green7938.2%
- Abby Al-Sahi · Other610.6%
Division at a glance
2021 Census of Population, from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics' profile of each of the 57 provincial electoral divisions, which tabulates Statistics Canada's counts for each division directly: counts and medians are the census's own, not estimates. Ranks are against all 57 divisions.
- Median household income
- $92,00017 of 57
- Renters
- 29.4%22 of 57
- Bachelor's or higher
- 42.3%4 of 57
- Median age
- 45.28 of 57
- Over 65
- 24.1%5 of 57
- Visible minority
- 15.5%31 of 57
- Immigrants
- 17.2%28 of 57
- Indigenous identity
- 7.2%49 of 57
- Unemployment
- 6.9%42 of 57
Closest races, Winnipeg
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Results and boundaries: Elections Manitoba. Census profile: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics.