Oakville
MPP: Stephen Crawford · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Liberal51% chance of winning
- Liberal · 43.9% projected vote51%
- Progressive Conservative · 43.7% projected vote49%
2025 result
- Stephen Crawford · Progressive Conservativeelected22,75448.0%
- Alison Gohel · Liberal20,90644.1%
- Diane Downey · Ontario NDP1,8513.9%
- Bruno Sousa · Green1,2352.6%
- Shereen Di Vittorio · Other5561.2%
- Sandor Kornay · Other930.2%
- Margin
- 3.9%
- Tier
- Toss-up
- Turnout
- 49.0%
- Registered
- 96,712
2022 result
- Stephen Crawford · Progressive Conservativeelected21,16245.4%
- Alison Gohel · Liberal17,55437.7%
- Maeve McNaughton · Ontario NDP3,1546.8%
- Bruno Sousa · Green2,4165.2%
- Stephen Kenneth Crawford · Other8461.8%
- Mark Fraser Platt · Other7641.6%
- Alicia Bedford · Other4971.1%
- Silvio Ursomarzo · Other1290.3%
- Andrew Titov · Other470.1%
2018 result
- Stephen Crawford · Progressive Conservativeelected24,83743.7%
- Kevin Flynn · Liberal20,32735.7%
- Lesley Sprague · Ontario NDP9,42416.6%
- Emily de Sousa · Green1,9863.5%
- Spencer Oklobdzija · Other2970.5%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $120,00015 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,91611 of 124
- Renters
- 23.7%72 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 45.4%14 of 124
- Median age
- 45.231 of 124
- Over 65
- 19.7%52 of 124
- Immigrants
- 37.7%42 of 124
- Visible minority
- 35.1%47 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 0.8%90 of 124
- Unemployment
- 11.8%71 of 124
Closest races in GTA
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.