Newmarket—Aurora
MPP: Dawn Gallagher Murphy · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative61% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 43.5% projected vote61%
- Liberal · 41.7% projected vote39%
2025 result
- Dawn Gallagher Murphy · Progressive Conservativeelected20,26047.6%
- Chris Ballard · Liberal17,72341.6%
- Denis Heng · Ontario NDP2,7096.4%
- David Jakubiec · Green1,0882.5%
- Shirin Khasbakhi · Other5361.3%
- Yuri Duboisky · Other2860.7%
- Margin
- 6.0%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 43.5%
- Registered
- 97,899
2022 result
- Dawn Gallagher Murphy · Progressive Conservativeelected18,67145.0%
- Sylvain Roy · Liberal13,06931.5%
- Denis Heng · Ontario NDP5,28112.7%
- Carolina Rodriguez · Green2,3325.6%
- Iwona Czarnecka · Other1,5203.7%
- Krista McKenzie · Other5321.3%
- Yuri Duboisky · Other1180.3%
2018 result
- Christine Elliott · Progressive Conservativeelected24,81347.7%
- Melissa Williams · Ontario NDP12,40523.9%
- Chris Ballard · Liberal11,84022.8%
- Michelle Bourdeau · Green1,8593.6%
- Dorian Baxter · Independent4470.9%
- Bob Yaciuk · Other2120.4%
- Lori Robbins · Other1920.4%
- Denis van Decker · Other1850.4%
- Denis Gorlynskiy · Other600.1%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $112,00025 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,70628 of 124
- Renters
- 22.3%77 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 35.1%40 of 124
- Median age
- 41.269 of 124
- Over 65
- 15.1%99 of 124
- Immigrants
- 35.4%45 of 124
- Visible minority
- 38.0%41 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 1.0%86 of 124
- Unemployment
- 12.2%62 of 124
Closest races in GTA
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.