Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
MPP: Jeff Beattie · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative85% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 38.7% projected vote85%
- Liberal · 32.3% projected vote15%
2026 by-election
Shown for the record. The projection starts from the 2025 general election instead; where a by-election since then changed the seat's party, the new member's personal vote is added to that party.
- Jeff Beattie · Progressive Conservativeelected10,50038.9%
- Monique Taylor · Ontario NDP8,88632.9%
- Heino Doessing · Liberal6,33423.4%
- Pascale Marchand · Green7192.7%
- Wieslawa Derlatka · Other3181.2%
- Heather Curnew · Other2540.9%
2025 result
- Neil Lumsden · Progressive Conservativeelected16,40142.1%
- Heino Doessing · Liberal12,32331.6%
- Zaigham Butt · Ontario NDP6,86217.6%
- Pascale Marchand · Green2,0495.3%
- Heather Curnew · Other5951.5%
- Wieslawa Derlatka · Other5301.4%
- Drew Garvie · Other2230.6%
- Margin
- 10.5%
- Tier
- Lean
- Turnout
- 43.5%
- Registered
- 89,584
2022 result
- Neil Lumsden · Progressive Conservativeelected12,16634.6%
- Zaigham Butt · Ontario NDP9,61427.3%
- Jason Farr · Liberal7,41121.1%
- Paul Miller · Independent2,4116.9%
- Cassie Wylie · Green1,7405.0%
- Domenic Diluca · Other1,0523.0%
- Jeffery Raulino · Other6932.0%
- Cameron Rajewski · Other790.2%
2018 result
- Paul Miller · Ontario NDPelected22,51851.1%
- Akash Grewal · Progressive Conservative12,68428.8%
- Jennifer Stebbing · Liberal5,32012.1%
- Brian Munroe · Green1,8844.3%
- Allan Deroo · Other7151.6%
- Linda Chenoweth · Other6591.5%
- Lucina Monroy · Other2400.6%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $79,00090 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,22378 of 124
- Renters
- 33.4%41 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 17.2%97 of 124
- Median age
- 43.245 of 124
- Over 65
- 20.6%40 of 124
- Immigrants
- 28.6%55 of 124
- Visible minority
- 21.9%74 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 2.5%46 of 124
- Unemployment
- 13.3%36 of 124
Closest races in Hamilton-Niagara
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.