St. Catharines
MPP: Jennie Stevens · Ontario NDP
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Ontario NDP99% chance of winning
- Ontario NDP · 45.5% projected vote99%
- Progressive Conservative · 31.6% projected vote1%
2025 result
- Jennie Stevens · Ontario NDPelected19,68842.1%
- Sal Sorrento · Progressive Conservative16,42235.1%
- Robin McPherson · Liberal8,09217.3%
- Stephen Vincelette-Smith · Green1,0332.2%
- Rob Atalick · Other8071.7%
- Natalia Benoit · Other3470.7%
- Liz Leeuwenburg · Other3000.6%
- J. Justin O'Donnell · Other560.1%
- Margin
- 7.0%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 49.5%
- Registered
- 94,400
2022 result
- Jennie Stevens · Ontario NDPelected17,12839.7%
- Sal Sorrento · Progressive Conservative14,85134.4%
- Ryan Madill · Liberal7,17516.6%
- Michele Braniff · Green1,7644.1%
- Keith McDonald · Other1,1032.6%
- Michael Goddard · Other6131.4%
- Judi Falardeau · Other3720.9%
- Rin Simon · Other990.2%
- J. Justin O'Donnell · Other310.1%
2018 result
- Jennie Stevens · Ontario NDPelected18,91136.6%
- Sandie Bellows · Progressive Conservative17,35333.6%
- Jim Bradley · Liberal12,67124.5%
- Colin Ryrie · Green1,9233.7%
- Jim Fannon · Other4941.0%
- Daniel Tisi · Other1950.4%
- Saleh Waziruddin · Other660.1%
- Duke Willis · Other370.1%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $70,500118 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,16389 of 124
- Renters
- 37.2%36 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 21.5%79 of 124
- Median age
- 45.625 of 124
- Over 65
- 24.1%16 of 124
- Immigrants
- 19.4%81 of 124
- Visible minority
- 15.8%83 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 2.5%47 of 124
- Unemployment
- 15.8%12 of 124
Closest races in Hamilton-Niagara
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.