Niagara Centre
MPP: Jeff Burch · Ontario NDP
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Ontario NDP97% chance of winning
- Ontario NDP · 45.5% projected vote97%
- Progressive Conservative · 33.8% projected vote3%
2025 result
- Jeff Burch · Ontario NDPelected20,40842.2%
- Bill Steele · Progressive Conservative18,07337.4%
- Damien O'Brien · Liberal7,14314.8%
- Natashia Bergen · Green1,2612.6%
- Jimmy Jackson · Other8571.8%
- Darryl Weinberg · Other5131.1%
- Angela Browne · Other1300.3%
- Margin
- 4.8%
- Tier
- Toss-up
- Turnout
- 48.0%
- Registered
- 100,743
2022 result
- Jeff Burch · Ontario NDPelected16,36039.7%
- Fred Davies · Progressive Conservative15,50637.6%
- Terry Flynn · Liberal5,49213.3%
- Michelle McArthur · Green1,8654.5%
- Gary Dumelie · Other1,1482.8%
- Vincent Gircys · Other8372.0%
2018 result
- Jeff Burch · Ontario NDPelected21,61844.2%
- April Jeffs · Progressive Conservative18,33337.5%
- Benoit Mercier · Liberal5,77911.8%
- Joe Dias · Green1,8033.7%
- Joe Crawford · Other6231.3%
- Patrick Pietruszko · Other3680.8%
- Steven Soos · Independent2170.4%
- Dario Smagata-Bryan · Other1330.3%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $75,000109 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,12194 of 124
- Renters
- 29.6%59 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 16.7%100 of 124
- Median age
- 43.642 of 124
- Over 65
- 21.5%32 of 124
- Immigrants
- 13.9%90 of 124
- Visible minority
- 11.9%87 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 4.0%27 of 124
- Unemployment
- 14.9%19 of 124
Closest races in Hamilton-Niagara
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.