York Centre
MPP: Michael Kerzner · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative99% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 50.3% projected vote99%
- Liberal · 36.0% projected vote1%
2025 result
- Michael Kerzner · Progressive Conservativeelected16,41654.1%
- Sam Nestico · Liberal10,82335.6%
- Natalie Van Halteren · Ontario NDP1,7005.6%
- Courtney Martin · Green6582.2%
- Johnny Blythe · Other3091.0%
- Lionel Poizner · Other2120.7%
- Jeffrey Anisman · Other1400.5%
- Parviz Isgandarov · Other1110.4%
- Margin
- 18.4%
- Tier
- Lean
- Turnout
- 39.5%
- Registered
- 76,907
2022 result
- Michael Kerzner · Progressive Conservativeelected12,94746.0%
- Shelley Brown · Liberal8,98431.9%
- Frank Chu · Ontario NDP3,93514.0%
- Alison Lowney · Green7992.8%
- Nick Balaskas · Other6792.4%
- Don Pincivero · Other4111.5%
- Mark Dewdney · Other1690.6%
- Lionel Wayne Poizner · Other1240.4%
- Parviz Isgandarov · Other800.3%
2018 result
- Roman Baber · Progressive Conservativeelected18,43450.1%
- Andrea Vásquez Jiménez · Ontario NDP8,61723.4%
- Ramon Estaris · Liberal7,86521.4%
- Roma Lyon · Green8432.3%
- Cherie Ann Day · Other4671.3%
- Benjamin Kamminga · Other3981.1%
- Alexander Leonov · Other1370.4%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $82,00083 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,44850 of 124
- Renters
- 50.2%14 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 33.4%45 of 124
- Median age
- 41.663 of 124
- Over 65
- 17.3%74 of 124
- Immigrants
- 55.4%16 of 124
- Visible minority
- 52.5%30 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 0.5%107 of 124
- Unemployment
- 14.1%26 of 124
Closest races in Toronto
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.