Etobicoke Centre
MPP: Kinga Surma · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative63% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 44.7% projected vote63%
- Liberal · 42.5% projected vote37%
2025 result
- Kinga Surma · Progressive Conservativeelected22,26148.1%
- John Campbell · Liberal19,35841.8%
- Giulia Volpe · Ontario NDP2,1514.7%
- Brian Morris · Green1,0002.2%
- Mario Bilusic · Other6581.4%
- Paul Fromm · Other4791.0%
- Richard M. Kiernicki · Other1920.4%
- Signe Miranda · Other1800.4%
- Margin
- 6.3%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 47.8%
- Registered
- 96,769
2022 result
- Kinga Surma · Progressive Conservativeelected22,03548.6%
- Noel Semple · Liberal15,44334.0%
- Heather Vickers-Wong · Ontario NDP3,9068.6%
- Brian Maclean · Green2,0364.5%
- Cathy Habus · Other1,1172.5%
- Mitchell Gilboy · Other5301.2%
- Richard M. Kiernicki · Other1980.4%
- Genadij Zaitsev · Other860.2%
2018 result
- Kinga Surma · Progressive Conservativeelected24,43243.0%
- Yvan Baker · Liberal19,70834.7%
- Erica Kelly · Ontario NDP10,31118.1%
- Shawn Rizvi · Green1,3292.3%
- Paul Fromm · Other6311.1%
- Basil Mummery · Other2520.4%
- Wallace Richards · Independent1620.3%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $101,00039 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,57439 of 124
- Renters
- 32.6%46 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 37.6%31 of 124
- Median age
- 45.621 of 124
- Over 65
- 22.2%27 of 124
- Immigrants
- 41.4%35 of 124
- Visible minority
- 31.7%57 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 0.7%97 of 124
- Unemployment
- 12.8%46 of 124
Closest races in Toronto
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.