Scarborough Southwest
MPP: Fatima Shaban · Ontario NDP
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Ontario NDP>99% chance of winning
- Ontario NDP · 44.8% projected vote>99%
- Progressive Conservative · 26.2% projected vote<1%
2026 by-election
Shown for the record. The projection starts from the 2025 general election instead; where a by-election since then changed the seat's party, the new member's personal vote is added to that party.
- Fatima Shaban · Ontario NDPelected8,91440.5%
- Ahsanul Hafiz · Liberal6,67430.3%
- Noor Tarun · Progressive Conservative5,14823.4%
- Mark Bekkering · Green7533.4%
- Gord Elliott · Other2371.1%
- Chris Rees · Other1780.8%
- Michael Perdelwitz · Independent1290.6%
2025 result
- Doly Begum · Ontario NDPelected14,55742.9%
- Addie Daramola · Progressive Conservative10,40030.6%
- Qadira Jackson · Liberal7,78622.9%
- Mark Bekkering · Green1,1943.5%
- Margin
- 12.3%
- Tier
- Lean
- Turnout
- 41.5%
- Registered
- 81,880
2022 result
- Doly Begum · Ontario NDPelected16,84247.7%
- Bret Snider · Progressive Conservative9,75027.6%
- Lisa Patel · Liberal6,55618.6%
- Cara Brideau · Green1,2513.5%
- Peter Naus · Other3831.1%
- Barbara Everatt · Other3200.9%
- James McNair · Other1140.3%
- Michelle Parsons · Independent1100.3%
2018 result
- Doly Begum · Ontario NDPelected19,83545.7%
- Gary Ellis · Progressive Conservative13,56531.2%
- Lorenzo Berardinetti · Liberal8,22818.9%
- David del Grande · Green1,1742.7%
- Allen Atkinson · Other2220.5%
- James Speirs · Other1950.5%
- Willie Little · Other1600.4%
- Bobby Turley · Other640.1%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $79,00091 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,19684 of 124
- Renters
- 45.7%20 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 31.5%49 of 124
- Median age
- 41.272 of 124
- Over 65
- 16.6%86 of 124
- Immigrants
- 45.8%28 of 124
- Visible minority
- 61.4%24 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 1.3%77 of 124
- Unemployment
- 16.4%8 of 124
Closest races in Toronto
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.