Kanata—Carleton
MPP: Karen McCrimmon · Liberal
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Liberal96% chance of winning
- Liberal · 47.9% projected vote96%
- Progressive Conservative · 36.6% projected vote4%
2025 result
- Karen McCrimmon · Liberalelected22,81147.9%
- Scott Phelan · Progressive Conservative19,35340.6%
- Dave Belcher · Ontario NDP3,4197.2%
- Jennifer Purdy · Green1,1992.5%
- Elizabeth Watson · Other5031.1%
- Frank Jakubowski · Other3230.7%
- Margin
- 7.3%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 50.1%
- Registered
- 95,098
2023 by-election
Shown for the record. The projection starts from the 2025 general election instead; where a by-election since then changed the seat's party, the new member's personal vote is added to that party.
- Karen McCrimmon · Liberalelected11,21434.7%
- Sean Webster · Progressive Conservative10,41632.2%
- Melissa Coenraad · Ontario NDP9,56029.5%
- Jennifer Boudreau · Other6362.0%
- Steven Warren · Green4421.4%
- Josh Rachlis · Independent900.3%
2022 result
- Merrilee Fullerton · Progressive Conservativeelected19,87143.6%
- Melissa Coenraad · Ontario NDP11,04524.2%
- Shahbaz Syed · Liberal10,67223.4%
- Pat Freel · Green2,5035.5%
- Jennifer Boudreau · Other1,0852.4%
- Brian Chuipka · Other3930.9%
2018 result
- Merrilee Fullerton · Progressive Conservativeelected23,08943.2%
- John Hansen · Ontario NDP15,59229.2%
- Stephanie Maghnam · Liberal9,09017.0%
- Andrew West · Green2,8275.3%
- Jack Maclaren · Other1,9473.6%
- Peter D'Entremont · Other5241.0%
- Robert Lebrun · Other3840.7%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $125,0007 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,80617 of 124
- Renters
- 17.3%96 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 41.8%23 of 124
- Median age
- 42.052 of 124
- Over 65
- 16.2%88 of 124
- Immigrants
- 26.3%62 of 124
- Visible minority
- 29.9%60 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 2.3%56 of 124
- Unemployment
- 9.1%110 of 124
Closest races in Ottawa
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.