Carleton
MPP: George Darouze · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative87% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 46.0% projected vote87%
- Liberal · 39.0% projected vote13%
2025 result
- George Darouze · Progressive Conservativeelected26,15849.6%
- Brandon Bay · Liberal20,33538.6%
- Sherin Faili · Ontario NDP3,7637.1%
- Mystic Plaunt · Green9561.8%
- Rob Stocki · Other6991.3%
- Myles Dear · Other3460.7%
- Bruce Anthony Faulkner · Other2630.5%
- Brian Hull · Independent2020.4%
- Margin
- 11.0%
- Tier
- Lean
- Turnout
- 46.9%
- Registered
- 112,480
2022 result
- Goldie Ghamari · Progressive Conservativeelected22,29548.1%
- Tom Dawson · Liberal12,45226.9%
- Kevin St. Denis · Ontario NDP7,25615.7%
- Cody Zulinski · Green2,5375.5%
- Rob Stocki · Other1,0372.2%
- Ethan Ferguson · Other4941.1%
- Chris Mark Beauchamp · Other2350.5%
2018 result
- Goldie Ghamari · Progressive Conservativeelected25,79851.3%
- Courtney Potter · Ontario NDP11,30822.5%
- Theresa Qadri · Liberal9,76819.4%
- Gordon Kubanek · Green1,9854.0%
- Evan Nightingale · Other4130.8%
- Jay Tysick · Other3990.8%
- Jean-Serge Brisson · Other3860.8%
- Kevin Harris · Other1100.2%
- Mark Dickson · Other910.2%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $136,0003 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,91212 of 124
- Renters
- 12.2%120 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 39.2%28 of 124
- Median age
- 39.292 of 124
- Over 65
- 14.0%111 of 124
- Immigrants
- 21.2%78 of 124
- Visible minority
- 24.6%71 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 2.5%45 of 124
- Unemployment
- 8.6%117 of 124
Closest races in Ottawa
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.