Markham—Stouffville
MPP: Paul Calandra · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative79% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 46.2% projected vote79%
- Liberal · 41.2% projected vote21%
2025 result
- Paul Calandra · Progressive Conservativeelected22,75750.6%
- Kelly Dunn · Liberal18,62441.4%
- Gregory Hines · Ontario NDP2,0514.6%
- Myles O'Brien · Green1,0182.3%
- Brendan Sorenson · Other4911.1%
- Margin
- 9.2%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 43.2%
- Registered
- 104,085
2022 result
- Paul Calandra · Progressive Conservativeelected21,17648.4%
- Kelly Dunn · Liberal15,51235.5%
- Kingsley Kwok · Ontario NDP4,1379.5%
- Myles O'Brien · Green1,7233.9%
- Jennifer Gowland · Other6581.5%
- Michele Petit · Other5171.2%
2018 result
- Paul Calandra · Progressive Conservativeelected25,91248.1%
- Helena Jaczek · Liberal14,00726.0%
- Kingsley Kwok · Ontario NDP10,99720.4%
- Jose Etcheverry · Green2,1534.0%
- Paul Balfour · Other6601.2%
- Yuri Duboisky · Other1170.2%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $120,00014 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,85416 of 124
- Renters
- 13.6%118 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 37.2%35 of 124
- Median age
- 41.268 of 124
- Over 65
- 17.0%79 of 124
- Immigrants
- 44.5%29 of 124
- Visible minority
- 63.3%22 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 0.5%104 of 124
- Unemployment
- 11.2%82 of 124
Closest races in GTA
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.