Humber River—Black Creek
MPP: Tom Rakocevic · Ontario NDP
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Ontario NDP87% chance of winning
- Ontario NDP · 37.9% projected vote87%
- Progressive Conservative · 30.4% projected vote11%
- Liberal · 27.3% projected vote3%
2025 result
- Tom Rakocevic · Ontario NDPelected8,78835.3%
- Paul Nguyen · Progressive Conservative8,59534.5%
- Liban Hassan · Liberal6,81127.4%
- Alexander Qanbery · Green4021.6%
- Jeanne McGuire · Other2801.1%
- Margin
- 0.8%
- Tier
- Toss-up
- Turnout
- 34.2%
- Registered
- 72,740
2022 result
- Tom Rakocevic · Ontario NDPelected7,95934.5%
- Ida Li Preti · Liberal7,07630.7%
- Paul Nguyen · Progressive Conservative6,86529.8%
- Keith Berry · Green4301.9%
- Lee Miguel Gonzalez · Other3571.6%
- Iulian Caunei · Other2811.2%
- Knia Singh · Independent1100.5%
2018 result
- Tom Rakocevic · Ontario NDPelected11,57337.4%
- Cyma Musarat · Progressive Conservative9,36730.3%
- Deanna Sgro · Liberal8,64227.9%
- Kirsten J. Bennett · Green4851.6%
- Jennifer Ochoa · Other3441.1%
- Scott Aitchison · Other3201.0%
- Lucy Guerrero · Other1980.6%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $73,000114 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,26175 of 124
- Renters
- 52.0%11 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 17.6%94 of 124
- Median age
- 38.0108 of 124
- Over 65
- 15.1%100 of 124
- Immigrants
- 56.4%11 of 124
- Visible minority
- 78.2%9 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 0.5%108 of 124
- Unemployment
- 17.8%4 of 124
Closest races in Toronto
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.