Parry Sound—Muskoka
MPP: Graydon Smith · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative63% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 43.0% projected vote63%
- Green · 40.8% projected vote37%
2025 result
- Graydon Smith · Progressive Conservativeelected21,73146.8%
- Matt Richter · Green19,36041.7%
- David Innes · Liberal2,8286.1%
- Jim Ronholm · Ontario NDP1,3292.9%
- Brandon Nicksy · Other7851.7%
- Helen Kroeker · Other4030.9%
- Margin
- 5.1%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 53.3%
- Registered
- 87,147
2022 result
- Graydon Smith · Progressive Conservativeelected20,21645.4%
- Matt Richter · Green18,10240.6%
- Erin Horvath · Ontario NDP3,4277.7%
- Andrew John Cocks · Other1,6493.7%
- Doug Maynard · Other8832.0%
- Daniel Predie Jr. · Independent1550.3%
- Brad Waddell · Other1260.3%
2018 result
- Norm Miller · Progressive Conservativeelected22,66248.1%
- Erin Horvath · Ontario NDP10,38522.0%
- Matt Richter · Green9,43820.0%
- Brenda Rhodes · Liberal4,0718.6%
- Jeff Mole · Independent2190.5%
- Chris Packer · Other1960.4%
- Joshua Macdonald · Other1720.4%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $77,00098 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,11396 of 124
- Renters
- 17.1%101 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 18.1%92 of 124
- Median age
- 54.21 of 124
- Over 65
- 29.4%1 of 124
- Immigrants
- 7.7%108 of 124
- Visible minority
- 2.2%120 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 5.2%16 of 124
- Unemployment
- 10.5%94 of 124
Closest races in Northern Ontario
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.