Thunder Bay—Atikokan
MPP: Kevin Holland · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative98% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 41.8% projected vote98%
- Ontario NDP · 28.9% projected vote2%
- Liberal · 24.9% projected vote<1%
2025 result
- Kevin Holland · Progressive Conservativeelected13,72745.7%
- Judith Monteith-Farrell · Ontario NDP7,76625.9%
- Stephen Margarit · Liberal7,39824.6%
- Martin Tempelman · Other4971.7%
- Eric Arner · Green4571.5%
- K.C. Jones · Other1840.6%
- Margin
- 19.9%
- Tier
- Lean
- Turnout
- 48.9%
- Registered
- 61,373
2022 result
- Kevin Holland · Progressive Conservativeelected9,65736.3%
- Judith Monteith-Farrell · Ontario NDP8,75932.9%
- Rob Barrett · Liberal6,48624.4%
- Eric Arner · Green7812.9%
- David Tommasini · Other5292.0%
- Dan Criger · Other2480.9%
- Kenneth Jones · Other1380.5%
2018 result
- Judith Monteith-Farrell · Ontario NDPelected11,79336.3%
- Bill Mauro · Liberal11,71236.0%
- Brandon Postuma · Progressive Conservative7,55523.2%
- John Northey · Green8802.7%
- David Bruno · Other4691.4%
- Dorothy Snell · Other1160.4%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $83,00080 of 124
- Average rent
- $957116 of 124
- Renters
- 23.3%73 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 19.5%85 of 124
- Median age
- 44.834 of 124
- Over 65
- 21.4%35 of 124
- Immigrants
- 7.3%111 of 124
- Visible minority
- 5.3%101 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 14.0%8 of 124
- Unemployment
- 10.3%97 of 124
Closest races in Northern Ontario
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.