Thunder Bay—Superior North
MPP: Lise Vaugeois · Ontario NDP
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Ontario NDP99% chance of winning
- Ontario NDP · 43.6% projected vote99%
- Progressive Conservative · 30.3% projected vote1%
2025 result
- Lise Vaugeois · Ontario NDPelected11,13740.6%
- Rick Dumas · Progressive Conservative9,34834.0%
- Brian Hamilton · Liberal5,84621.3%
- John Northey · Green4371.6%
- Daniel K. Campbell · Other3361.2%
- Katherine Suutari · Other2651.0%
- Steve Hanssen · Independent820.3%
- Margin
- 6.5%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 48.6%
- Registered
- 56,498
2022 result
- Lise Vaugeois · Ontario NDPelected8,40434.1%
- Peng You · Progressive Conservative7,60430.9%
- Shelby Ch'Ng · Liberal6,96628.3%
- Tracey Allison Mackinnon · Green7383.0%
- Stephen Hufnagel · Other3381.4%
- Katherine Suutari · Other3141.3%
- Andy Wolff · Other1450.6%
- Adam Cherry · Other1250.5%
2018 result
- Michael Gravelle · Liberalelected11,97339.9%
- Lise Vaugeois · Ontario NDP11,16037.2%
- Derek Parks · Progressive Conservative5,39518.0%
- Amanda Moddejonge · Green8382.8%
- Andy Wolff · Other3761.3%
- Tony Gallo · Other1480.5%
- Louise Ewen · Other1450.5%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $76,500101 of 124
- Average rent
- $978114 of 124
- Renters
- 30.8%52 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 21.7%77 of 124
- Median age
- 45.032 of 124
- Over 65
- 22.8%24 of 124
- Immigrants
- 8.3%105 of 124
- Visible minority
- 6.4%97 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 17.9%5 of 124
- Unemployment
- 10.8%88 of 124
Closest races in Northern Ontario
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.