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Northern OntarioSafeRural

Timiskaming—Cochrane

MPP: John Vanthof · Ontario NDP

Projected winner

If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.

Ontario NDP98% chance of winning

  • Ontario NDP · 47.3% projected vote98%
  • Progressive Conservative · 34.3% projected vote2%

2025 result

  • John Vanthof · Ontario NDPelected11,08544.0%
  • Tory Delaurier · Progressive Conservative9,54937.9%
  • Rick Ellsmere · Liberal2,4469.7%
  • Kris Rivard · Green1,3595.4%
  • Stephen Macleod · Other7773.1%
Margin
6.1%
Tier
Swing
Turnout
48.1%
Registered
52,448

2022 result

  • John Vanthof · Ontario NDPelected9,73542.7%
  • Bill Foy · Progressive Conservative8,02435.2%
  • Brian Johnson · Liberal1,6007.0%
  • Kris Rivard · Green1,4856.5%
  • Garry Andrade · Other1,1815.2%
  • Geoffrey Aitchison · Other3491.5%
  • Eric Cummings · Other2481.1%
  • Jeff Wilkinson · Other1570.7%

2018 result

  • John Vanthof · Ontario NDPelected16,80661.2%
  • Margaret Williams · Progressive Conservative6,16022.4%
  • Brian A. Johnson · Liberal2,4769.0%
  • Shawn Poirier · Other1,1054.0%
  • Casey Lalonde · Green7232.6%
  • Lawrence Schnarr · Other1910.7%

District at a glance

2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.

Median household income
$71,500116 of 124
Average rent
$841122 of 124
Renters
25.0%70 of 124
Bachelor's or higher
10.4%122 of 124
Median age
48.810 of 124
Over 65
24.6%15 of 124
Immigrants
2.9%122 of 124
Visible minority
1.6%123 of 124
Indigenous identity
14.3%7 of 124
Unemployment
9.1%111 of 124

Closest races in Northern Ontario

The seats most likely to move with this one.

Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.