Sarnia—Lambton
MPP: Bob Bailey · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative>99% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 50.8% projected vote>99%
2025 result
- Bob Bailey · Progressive Conservativeelected22,72651.3%
- Candace Young · Ontario NDP8,71619.7%
- Rachel Willsie · Liberal8,13418.4%
- Keith Benn · Other1,8764.2%
- Nathan Colquhoun · Independent8902.0%
- Pamela Reid · Green8401.9%
- Jacques Boudreau · Other5911.3%
- Mark Lamore · Other3590.8%
- Tom Stoukas · Other1510.3%
- Margin
- 31.6%
- Tier
- Safe
- Turnout
- 50.1%
- Registered
- 88,387
2022 result
- Bob Bailey · Progressive Conservativeelected21,18452.7%
- Dylan Stelpstra · Ontario NDP9,48923.6%
- Mark Russell · Liberal4,20010.4%
- Keith Benn · Other2,7196.8%
- Mason Bourdeau · Green1,2663.1%
- Carla Olson · Other9722.4%
- Ian Orchard · Other3510.9%
2018 result
- Bob Bailey · Progressive Conservativeelected26,81152.8%
- Kathy Alexander · Ontario NDP18,99537.4%
- Neil Wereley · Liberal2,2464.4%
- Kevin Shaw · Green1,8563.6%
- Andy Bruziewicz · Other6011.2%
- Jeff Lozier · Other2500.5%
- Fanina R. Kodre · Other710.1%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $83,00079 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,073101 of 124
- Renters
- 26.5%66 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 16.3%102 of 124
- Median age
- 45.626 of 124
- Over 65
- 24.0%17 of 124
- Immigrants
- 10.1%96 of 124
- Visible minority
- 6.4%98 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 4.3%23 of 124
- Unemployment
- 11.4%75 of 124
Closest races in Southwestern Ontario
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.