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Southwestern OntarioSafeRural

Kitchener—Conestoga

MPP: Mike Harris · Progressive Conservative

Projected winner

If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.

Progressive Conservative91% chance of winning

  • Progressive Conservative · 38.7% projected vote91%
  • Liberal · 30.6% projected vote9%
  • Ontario NDP · 22.1% projected vote<1%

2025 result

  • Mike Harris · Progressive Conservativeelected16,94641.5%
  • Joe Gowing · Liberal12,03129.5%
  • Jodi Szimanski · Ontario NDP7,55118.5%
  • Brayden Wagenaar · Green2,2275.5%
  • Jim Karahalios · Other1,1522.8%
  • Patrick Doucette · Other8902.2%
Margin
12.1%
Tier
Lean
Turnout
50.6%
Registered
80,543

2022 result

  • Mike Harris · Progressive Conservativeelected15,04540.0%
  • Karen Meissner · Ontario NDP10,85128.9%
  • Melanie Van Alphen · Liberal6,59017.5%
  • Nasir Abdulle · Green2,3156.2%
  • Jim Karahalios · Other2,2235.9%
  • Elisabeth Perrin Snyder · Other5011.3%
  • Jason Adair · Other640.2%

2018 result

  • Mike Harris · Progressive Conservativeelected17,00539.6%
  • Kelly Dick · Ontario NDP16,31938.0%
  • Joe Gowing · Liberal6,03514.0%
  • Bob Jonkman · Green2,8536.6%
  • Daniel Benoy · Other5501.3%
  • Dan Holt · Other2120.5%

District at a glance

2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.

Median household income
$112,00024 of 124
Average rent
$1,51246 of 124
Renters
17.7%92 of 124
Bachelor's or higher
25.3%68 of 124
Median age
38.4103 of 124
Over 65
15.3%94 of 124
Immigrants
21.3%77 of 124
Visible minority
20.4%79 of 124
Indigenous identity
1.4%75 of 124
Unemployment
8.1%121 of 124

Closest races in Southwestern Ontario

The seats most likely to move with this one.

Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.