Elgin—Middlesex—London
MPP: Rob Flack · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative>99% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 53.2% projected vote>99%
2025 result
- Rob Flack · Progressive Conservativeelected28,72055.8%
- Douglas Mactavish · Liberal12,59824.5%
- Amanda Zavitz · Ontario NDP4,7389.2%
- Amanda Stark · Green2,9335.7%
- Brian Figueiredo · Other1,4182.8%
- Cooper Labrie · Other6101.2%
- Stephen R Campbell · Other4690.9%
- Margin
- 31.3%
- Tier
- Safe
- Turnout
- 48.9%
- Registered
- 105,389
2022 result
- Rob Flack · Progressive Conservativeelected22,36951.1%
- Andy Kroeker · Ontario NDP7,97318.2%
- Heather Jackson · Liberal7,61817.4%
- Matt Millar · Other2,2385.1%
- Amanda Stark · Green2,0434.7%
- Brigitte Belton · Other1,0922.5%
- Dave Plumb · Other2610.6%
- Malichi Malé · Other1970.5%
2018 result
- Jeff Yurek · Progressive Conservativeelected29,26455.5%
- Amanda Stratton · Ontario NDP16,92332.1%
- Carlie Forsythe · Liberal3,8577.3%
- Bronagh Morgan · Green2,0293.9%
- Richard Styve · Other3000.6%
- Dave Plumb · Other2780.5%
- Henri Barrette · Other1160.2%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $88,00056 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,14490 of 124
- Renters
- 22.8%75 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 16.3%103 of 124
- Median age
- 42.848 of 124
- Over 65
- 19.9%50 of 124
- Immigrants
- 13.6%92 of 124
- Visible minority
- 8.2%93 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 1.9%62 of 124
- Unemployment
- 9.9%103 of 124
Closest races in Southwestern Ontario
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.