Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
MPP: Stephen Pinsonneault · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative>99% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 50.7% projected vote>99%
2025 result
- Stephen Pinsonneault · Progressive Conservativeelected25,29753.5%
- Cathy Burghardt-Jesson · Liberal12,39726.2%
- Kathryn Shailer · Ontario NDP5,77512.2%
- Andy Fisher · Other2,0934.4%
- Andraena Tilgner · Green1,6773.5%
- Margin
- 27.3%
- Tier
- Safe
- Turnout
- 50.7%
- Registered
- 93,152
2024 by-election
Shown for the record. The projection starts from the 2025 general election instead; where a by-election since then changed the seat's party, the new member's personal vote is added to that party.
- Steve Pinsonneault · Progressive Conservativeelected15,65656.8%
- Cathy Burghardt-Jesson · Liberal6,28922.8%
- Kathryn Shailer · Ontario NDP2,97810.8%
- Keith Benn · Other1,5155.5%
- Andraena Tilgner · Green4291.6%
- Stephen R. Campbell · Other3601.3%
- Cynthia Workman · Other2500.9%
- Hilda Walton · Other870.3%
2022 result
- Monte McNaughton · Progressive Conservativeelected24,93358.8%
- Vanessa Benoit · Ontario NDP7,98718.8%
- Bruce Baker · Liberal4,0639.6%
- David Barnwell · Other2,7016.4%
- Wanda Dickey · Green1,6884.0%
- Aaron Istvan Vegh · Other7271.7%
- Dean Eve · Other3000.7%
2018 result
- Monte McNaughton · Progressive Conservativeelected27,90655.3%
- Todd Case · Ontario NDP16,80033.3%
- Mike Radan · Liberal3,1436.2%
- Anthony Li · Green1,6603.3%
- Brian Everaert · Other5551.1%
- Brad Greulich · Other3600.7%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $87,00059 of 124
- Average rent
- $952117 of 124
- Renters
- 19.1%89 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 15.4%109 of 124
- Median age
- 45.229 of 124
- Over 65
- 22.1%28 of 124
- Immigrants
- 8.8%100 of 124
- Visible minority
- 3.3%112 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 4.2%25 of 124
- Unemployment
- 8.8%113 of 124
Closest races in Southwestern Ontario
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.