Burlington
MPP: Natalie Pierre · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Liberal73% chance of winning
- Liberal · 43.3% projected vote73%
- Progressive Conservative · 39.3% projected vote27%
2025 result
- Natalie Pierre · Progressive Conservativeelected24,11843.1%
- Andrea Grebenc · Liberal24,07943.1%
- Megan Beauchemin · Ontario NDP4,4878.0%
- Kyle Hutton · Green1,9133.4%
- James Chilli Chillingworth · Other7271.3%
- David Crombie · Other5821.0%
- Margin
- 0.1%
- Tier
- Toss-up
- Turnout
- 53.2%
- Registered
- 105,077
2022 result
- Natalie Pierre · Progressive Conservativeelected22,34842.5%
- Mariam Manaa · Liberal15,45229.4%
- Andrew Drummond · Ontario NDP9,26217.6%
- Kyle Hutton · Green3,5156.7%
- Allison McKenzie · Other1,3102.5%
- Sebastian Aldea · Other6331.2%
2018 result
- Jane McKenna · Progressive Conservativeelected25,50440.5%
- Andrew Drummond · Ontario NDP18,05328.6%
- Eleanor McMahon · Liberal15,51524.6%
- Vince Fiorito · Green2,8284.5%
- Jim Gilchrist · Other5300.8%
- Nadine Bentham · Other4710.8%
- Peter Rusin · Other1540.2%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $101,00038 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,65032 of 124
- Renters
- 30.5%54 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 32.5%46 of 124
- Median age
- 46.017 of 124
- Over 65
- 23.9%19 of 124
- Immigrants
- 23.6%70 of 124
- Visible minority
- 16.6%82 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 1.4%73 of 124
- Unemployment
- 10.8%86 of 124
Closest races in GTA
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.