Oakville North—Burlington
MPP: Effie Triantafilopoulos · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative77% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 45.4% projected vote77%
- Liberal · 40.7% projected vote23%
2025 result
- Effie Triantafilopoulos · Progressive Conservativeelected25,58049.7%
- Kaniz Mouli · Liberal21,05340.9%
- Caleb Smolenaars · Ontario NDP2,7695.4%
- Ali Hosny · Green1,4112.7%
- Charles Wroblewski · Other6591.3%
- Margin
- 8.8%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 46.3%
- Registered
- 111,157
2022 result
- Effie Triantafilopoulos · Progressive Conservativeelected22,22147.2%
- Kaniz Mouli · Liberal16,63135.3%
- Rhyan Vincent-Smith · Ontario NDP4,6739.9%
- Ali Hosny · Green2,0274.3%
- Doru Marin Gordan · Other1,0972.3%
- Jill Service · Other4460.9%
2018 result
- Effie Triantafilopoulos · Progressive Conservativeelected25,69146.4%
- Saima Zaidi · Ontario NDP13,49624.4%
- Alvin Tedjo · Liberal13,48724.4%
- Marianne Workman · Green2,0523.7%
- Charles Zach · Other4030.7%
- Frank Deluca · Other2220.4%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $137,0002 of 124
- Average rent
- $2,4281 of 124
- Renters
- 16.8%105 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 48.1%10 of 124
- Median age
- 39.294 of 124
- Over 65
- 11.9%118 of 124
- Immigrants
- 40.0%37 of 124
- Visible minority
- 44.0%36 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 0.7%95 of 124
- Unemployment
- 11.1%83 of 124
Closest races in GTA
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.