Toronto—St. Paul's
MPP: Stephanie Smyth · Liberal
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Liberal84% chance of winning
- Liberal · 40.2% projected vote84%
- Ontario NDP · 33.9% projected vote16%
2025 result
- Stephanie Smyth · Liberalelected17,45140.9%
- Jill Andrew · Ontario NDP13,55331.7%
- Riley Braunstein · Progressive Conservative10,82225.3%
- Chloe Tangpongprush · Green8732.0%
- Margin
- 9.1%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 46.6%
- Registered
- 91,639
2022 result
- Jill Andrew · Ontario NDPelected15,29236.3%
- Nathan Stall · Liberal14,20033.7%
- Blake Libfeld · Progressive Conservative9,44522.4%
- Ian Lipton · Green2,3025.5%
- Yehuda Goldberg · Other4731.1%
- Christian Ivanov Mihaylov · Other2420.6%
- Zoë Alexandra · Other1380.3%
- Margarita Sharapova · Other870.2%
2018 result
- Jill Andrew · Ontario NDPelected18,84336.0%
- Jess Spindler · Liberal17,49833.4%
- Andrew Kirsch · Progressive Conservative13,78026.3%
- Teresa Pun · Green1,6903.2%
- Jekiah U. Dunavant · Other4480.8%
- Marina Doshchitsina · Other1430.3%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $86,00068 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,76819 of 124
- Renters
- 61.4%2 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 56.7%4 of 124
- Median age
- 40.482 of 124
- Over 65
- 20.5%43 of 124
- Immigrants
- 35.4%44 of 124
- Visible minority
- 35.0%49 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 0.8%92 of 124
- Unemployment
- 10.8%85 of 124
Closest races in Toronto
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.