Etobicoke—Lakeshore
MPP: Lee Fairclough · Liberal
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Liberal97% chance of winning
- Liberal · 48.4% projected vote97%
- Progressive Conservative · 36.4% projected vote3%
2025 result
- Lee Fairclough · Liberalelected25,19548.5%
- Christine Hogarth · Progressive Conservative21,05040.5%
- Rozhen Asrani · Ontario NDP3,6407.0%
- Sean McClocklin · Green1,2182.4%
- Tony Siskos · Other4520.9%
- Larisa Berson · Other2040.4%
- Vitas Naudziunas · Other1650.3%
- Margin
- 8.0%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 46.4%
- Registered
- 111,858
2022 result
- Christine Hogarth · Progressive Conservativeelected17,97837.5%
- Lee Fairclough · Liberal17,13635.7%
- Farheen Alim · Ontario NDP8,59517.9%
- Thomas Yanuziello · Green2,2784.8%
- Mary Markovic · Other1,6123.4%
- Bill Denning · Independent1860.4%
- Vitas Naudziunas · Other1810.4%
2018 result
- Christine Hogarth · Progressive Conservativeelected22,62638.4%
- Phil Trotter · Ontario NDP19,40132.9%
- Peter Milczyn · Liberal14,30524.3%
- Chris Caldwell · Green2,1383.6%
- Mark Wrzesniewski · Other3600.6%
- Ian Lytvyn · Other1630.3%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $90,00053 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,59236 of 124
- Renters
- 43.1%29 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 44.6%15 of 124
- Median age
- 40.876 of 124
- Over 65
- 17.1%75 of 124
- Immigrants
- 39.1%39 of 124
- Visible minority
- 34.8%50 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 1.0%85 of 124
- Unemployment
- 11.8%70 of 124
Closest races in Toronto
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.