Hamilton Centre
MPP: Robin Lennox · Ontario NDP
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Ontario NDP>99% chance of winning
- Ontario NDP · 47.8% projected vote>99%
2025 result
- Robin Lennox · Ontario NDPelected12,83938.4%
- Eileen Walker · Liberal7,13221.3%
- Sarah Bokhari · Progressive Conservative6,33118.9%
- Sarah Jama · Independent4,97714.9%
- Lucia Iannantuono · Green1,6424.9%
- Mitch Novosad · Other4411.3%
- Nathalie Xian Yi Yan · Independent1070.3%
- Margin
- 17.1%
- Tier
- Lean
- Turnout
- 42.1%
- Registered
- 79,401
2023 by-election
Shown for the record. The projection starts from the 2025 general election instead; where a by-election since then changed the seat's party, the new member's personal vote is added to that party.
- Sarah Jama · Ontario NDPelected9,47754.2%
- Deirdre Pike · Liberal3,54220.3%
- Pete Wiesner · Progressive Conservative2,69015.4%
- Lucia Iannantuono · Green1,2066.9%
- Lee Weiss Vassor · Other1480.8%
- Peter House · Other1210.7%
- Mark Snow · Other1090.6%
- Matthew Lingard · Independent980.6%
- Nathalie Xian Yi Yan · Independent510.3%
- John Turmel · Independent380.2%
2022 result
- Andrea Horwath · Ontario NDPelected16,69057.3%
- Sarah Bokhari · Progressive Conservative4,80016.5%
- Ekaterini Dimakis · Liberal3,79913.0%
- Sandy Crawley · Green2,5548.8%
- John Chroust · Other4831.7%
- Brad Peace · Other4511.6%
- Nigel Cheriyan · Other2250.8%
- Nathalie Xian Yi Yan · Independent1450.5%
2018 result
- Andrea Horwath · Ontario NDPelected23,86665.3%
- Dionne Duncan · Progressive Conservative5,73015.7%
- Deirdre Pike · Liberal3,98210.9%
- Jason Lopez · Green2,1025.8%
- Tony Lemma · Other3200.9%
- Robert Young · Other2850.8%
- Maria Anastasiou · Independent1560.4%
- Mary Ellen Campbell · Other1340.4%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $60,400124 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,12193 of 124
- Renters
- 60.2%3 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 26.3%65 of 124
- Median age
- 37.6111 of 124
- Over 65
- 15.1%101 of 124
- Immigrants
- 23.5%71 of 124
- Visible minority
- 26.4%66 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 4.1%26 of 124
- Unemployment
- 14.0%27 of 124
Closest races in Hamilton-Niagara
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.