Oxford
MPP: Ernie Hardeman · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative>99% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 53.4% projected vote>99%
2025 result
- Ernie Hardeman · Progressive Conservativeelected27,06155.3%
- Bernia Martin · Liberal11,34823.2%
- Khadijah Haliru · Ontario NDP5,37411.0%
- Colton Kaufman · Green2,1824.5%
- Grace Harper · Other1,4142.9%
- Peter Beimers · Other1,3172.7%
- Henryk Szymczyszyn · Other2740.6%
- Margin
- 32.1%
- Tier
- Safe
- Turnout
- 48.3%
- Registered
- 101,383
2022 result
- Ernie Hardeman · Progressive Conservativeelected22,16650.0%
- Lindsay Wilson · Ontario NDP9,50421.4%
- Mary Holmes · Liberal5,45712.3%
- Karl Toews · Other3,5798.1%
- Cheryle Rose Baker · Green2,0974.7%
- Connie Oldenburger · Other1,5183.4%
2018 result
- Ernie Hardeman · Progressive Conservativeelected29,15255.7%
- Tara King · Ontario NDP15,91730.4%
- James Howard · Liberal3,6206.9%
- Albert de Jong · Green2,2544.3%
- Robert van Ryswyck · Other4470.8%
- Chris Swift · Other3700.7%
- David Sikal · Independent3350.6%
- Tim Hodges · Other2160.4%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $87,00062 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,18487 of 124
- Renters
- 26.4%67 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 13.4%116 of 124
- Median age
- 41.661 of 124
- Over 65
- 20.0%49 of 124
- Immigrants
- 11.3%94 of 124
- Visible minority
- 7.5%94 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 2.3%54 of 124
- Unemployment
- 10.3%95 of 124
Closest races in Southwestern Ontario
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.