Perth—Wellington
MPP: Matthew Rae · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative>99% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 44.5% projected vote>99%
- Liberal · 28.8% projected vote<1%
2025 result
- Matthew Rae · Progressive Conservativeelected21,28547.4%
- Ashley Fox · Liberal12,51927.9%
- Jason Davis · Ontario NDP5,66612.6%
- Ian Morton · Green3,3817.5%
- James Montgomery · Other1,3543.0%
- Sarah Zenuh · Other4751.1%
- Rob Smink · Other2290.5%
- Margin
- 19.5%
- Tier
- Lean
- Turnout
- 52.4%
- Registered
- 85,702
2022 result
- Matthew Rae · Progressive Conservativeelected19,46846.8%
- Jo-Dee Burbach · Ontario NDP9,17022.0%
- Ashley Fox · Liberal6,70816.1%
- Laura Bisutti · Green2,6276.3%
- Bob Hosken · Other2,4575.9%
- Sandy William Macgregor · Other9852.4%
- Robby Smink · Other1820.4%
2018 result
- Randy Pettapiece · Progressive Conservativeelected23,73650.7%
- Michael O'Brien · Ontario NDP14,38530.7%
- Brendan Knight · Liberal5,06210.8%
- Lisa Olsen · Green2,7465.9%
- Scott Marshall · Other3800.8%
- Paul McKendrick · Other3200.7%
- Rob Smeenk · Other1250.3%
- Andrew Stanton · Other890.2%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $85,00074 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,09499 of 124
- Renters
- 26.3%68 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 14.6%113 of 124
- Median age
- 41.271 of 124
- Over 65
- 20.4%44 of 124
- Immigrants
- 8.5%102 of 124
- Visible minority
- 4.8%104 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 1.5%69 of 124
- Unemployment
- 7.1%122 of 124
Closest races in Southwestern Ontario
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.