York—Simcoe
MPP: Susan Lahey · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Progressive Conservative>99% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 56.5% projected vote>99%
2026 by-election
Shown for the record. The projection starts from the 2025 general election instead; where a by-election since then changed the seat's party, the new member's personal vote is added to that party.
- Susan Lahey · Progressive Conservativeelected11,49149.8%
- Naomi Davison · Liberal8,94238.8%
- Bobby Nikmard · Ontario NDP9744.2%
- Matt Pearce · Green6422.8%
- Sean Conroy · Other3941.7%
- David Ghobrial · Other3831.7%
- Gerald Auger · Other2441.1%
2025 result
- Caroline Mulroney · Progressive Conservativeelected24,70559.4%
- Fatima Chaudhry · Liberal9,94123.9%
- Justin Graham · Ontario NDP3,2067.7%
- Jennifer Baron · Green2,0064.8%
- Brent Fellman · Other8412.0%
- Sean Conroy · Other4341.0%
- Alana Hollander · Other3170.8%
- Franco Colavecchia · Other1380.3%
- Margin
- 35.5%
- Tier
- Safe
- Turnout
- 40.1%
- Registered
- 103,817
2022 result
- Caroline Mulroney · Progressive Conservativeelected20,78956.8%
- Walter Alvarez-Bardales · Liberal6,31917.3%
- Spencer Yang Ki · Ontario NDP4,08311.2%
- Julie Stewart · Green2,6917.3%
- Brent Fellman · Other1,6334.5%
- Alana Hollander · Other6981.9%
- Zachary Tisdale · Other2620.7%
- Franco Colavecchia · Other1530.4%
2018 result
- Caroline Mulroney · Progressive Conservativeelected26,05057.3%
- Dave Szollosy · Ontario NDP10,65523.4%
- Loralea Carruthers · Liberal6,18213.6%
- Alexandra S. Zalucky · Green2,1954.8%
- Ioan Silviu Druma-Strugariu · Other2590.6%
- Franco Colavecchia · Other1500.3%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $108,00026 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,61833 of 124
- Renters
- 17.2%97 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 21.0%82 of 124
- Median age
- 40.088 of 124
- Over 65
- 14.8%104 of 124
- Immigrants
- 24.8%65 of 124
- Visible minority
- 23.2%73 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 2.0%61 of 124
- Unemployment
- 11.3%79 of 124
Closest races in GTA
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.