Ajax
MPP: Robert Cerjanec · Liberal
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; Ontario has no fixed election date, and the House must be dissolved by March 7, 2030.
Liberal77% chance of winning
- Liberal · 45.0% projected vote77%
- Progressive Conservative · 40.1% projected vote23%
2025 result
- Robert Cerjanec · Liberalelected18,49945.0%
- Patrice Barnes · Progressive Conservative18,16844.2%
- Arthur Augustine · Ontario NDP2,8847.0%
- Cory Feferman · Green8662.1%
- Chris Rees · Other4131.0%
- Sarah Qureshi · Other3120.8%
- Margin
- 0.8%
- Tier
- Toss-up
- Turnout
- 41.4%
- Registered
- 99,349
2022 result
- Patrice Barnes · Progressive Conservativeelected15,33640.7%
- Amber Bowen · Liberal13,56136.0%
- Christine Santos · Ontario NDP6,29116.7%
- Neil Runnalls · Green1,3053.5%
- Garry Reader · Other6251.7%
- Aaron Hopkins · Other3300.9%
- Intab Ali · Independent1270.3%
- Allen Hadley · Independent1120.3%
2018 result
- Rod Phillips · Progressive Conservativeelected19,07839.0%
- Monique Hughes · Ontario NDP15,13031.0%
- Joe Dickson · Liberal12,60725.8%
- Stephen Leahy · Green1,2242.5%
- Marsha Haynes · Other3120.6%
- Frank Lopez · Other2890.6%
- Kevin J. Brackley · Independent2200.5%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Ontario's provincial districts, but the 111 southern ones share their lines with the 2013 federal ridings, so their figures are the census's own for those ridings. The 13 northern districts are built from the dissemination areas inside each one: counts are sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 124 districts.
- Median household income
- $119,00016 of 124
- Average rent
- $1,66231 of 124
- Renters
- 16.5%107 of 124
- Bachelor's or higher
- 29.5%56 of 124
- Median age
- 38.498 of 124
- Over 65
- 13.1%116 of 124
- Immigrants
- 41.8%32 of 124
- Visible minority
- 64.6%21 of 124
- Indigenous identity
- 1.0%84 of 124
- Unemployment
- 13.4%35 of 124
Closest races in GTA
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Source: Elections Ontario (results, and boundaries under its Open Use Data Product Licence). Census: Statistics Canada.