Calgary-Shaw
MLA: Kyle Campbell · Alberta NDP
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 2, 2026; the next election is set for October 18, 2027.
Alberta NDP63% chance of winning
- Alberta NDP · 46.9% projected vote63%
- United Conservative · 44.5% projected vote37%
2026 by-election
Shown for the record. The projection starts from the 2023 general election instead; where a by-election changed the seat's party, the new member's personal vote is added to that party.
- Kyle Campbell · Alberta NDPelected7,46446.7%
- Mike Derry · United Conservative6,87343.0%
- Kyle Joseph · Progressive Tory9776.1%
- John Roggeveen · Liberal6023.8%
- Rolly Ashdown · Independent820.5%
2023 result
- Rebecca Schulz · United Conservativeelected13,97056.3%
- David Cloutier · Alberta NDP10,59142.7%
- Pietro Cervo · Other2360.9%
- Margin
- 13.6%
- Tier
- Lean
- Turnout
- 62.8%
- Registered
- 39,464
2019 result
- Rebecca Schulz · United Conservativeelected14,26165.3%
- Graham Dean Sucha · Alberta NDP5,59425.6%
- Bronson Ha · Progressive Tory1,3316.1%
- Vesna Samardzija · Liberal2901.3%
- John Daly · Green2121.0%
- Jarek Bucholc · Other1460.7%
Division at a glance
2021 Census of Population, from the Government of Alberta's profile of the 87 provincial electoral divisions, which allocates Statistics Canada's counts to each division directly: counts and medians are the census's own, not estimates. Ranks are against all 87 divisions.
- Median household income
- $113,00017 of 87
- Average rent
- $1,57614 of 87
- Renters
- 16.9%77 of 87
- Bachelor's or higher
- 33.4%24 of 87
- Median age
- 37.058 of 87
- Over 65
- 9.3%77 of 87
- Visible minority
- 39.5%21 of 87
- Immigrants
- 37.8%12 of 87
- Indigenous identity
- 2.7%79 of 87
- Unemployment
- 11.5%43 of 87
Closest races, Calgary
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Results: Elections Alberta. Boundaries and census profile: Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Alberta.