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NBSAFEAtlantic
Acadie—Bathurst
S
Serge Cormier
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal70%±6%·>99% win
Conservative18%±5%·<1% win
NDP7%±5%·<1% win
People's3%±3%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Govt. transfers
26.3%
#3 of 343top 5%
Median income
$39,840
Renters
21.7%
Under 35
10.1%
Top industry
Public sector · 31.7%
Area
6,322 km²
GE45 result
Margin
41.5%
Competitive
58.5/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare38.0% aged 65+
Employment13.7% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#336
Median income
$39,840
bottom 5%#323
Avg 2BR rent
$929/mo
bottom 10%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T42
Unemployment
13.7%
top 25%#T317
Shelter stressed
10.9%
bottom 10%#255
Renters
21.7%
Age distribution
Under 35
10.1%#T312
35–64
51.9%
65+
38.0%#15
Housing tenure
Renters
21.7%#255
Owners
78.2%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
21.0%#7
High school
24.3%#152
College/trades
40.5%#84
Bachelor's
10.8%#317
Postgrad
3.5%#330
People & Economy
#63
French knowledge
89.3%
top 25%#T330
Immigrants
1.5%
bottom 5%#T320
Recent arrivals
0.4%
bottom 10%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#329
Visible minority
1.6%
bottom 5%#127
Indigenous
4.1%
#3
Govt. transfers
26.3%
top 5%#317
Self-employed
9.0%
bottom 10%Industry of employment
Public sector31.7%
Trades & transport20.3%
Resources10.5%
Manufacturing9.9%
Finance & prof5.0%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 35.7 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 3 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$6.5M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.9M/yr
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