NBTOSSUPAtlantic

Miramichi—Grand Lake

Mike Dawson

Conservative

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Liberal48%±6%·86% win

Conservative41%±6%·14% win

NDP5%±5%·<1% win

Green4%±4%·<1% win

People's2%±2%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Govt. transfers

24.7%

#8 of 343top 5%

Median income

$41,040

Renters

17.0%

Under 35

11.1%

Top industry

Public sector · 35.5%

Area

19,781 km²

GE45 result

Margin

1.1%

Competitive

98.9/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare38.1% aged 65+

Employment15.6% unemployment

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#326

Median income

$41,040

bottom 5%

#T299

Avg 2BR rent

$1050/mo

bottom 25%

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#21

Unemployment

15.6%

top 10%

#T331

Shelter stressed

9.6%

bottom 5%

#T307

Renters

17.0%

bottom 25%

Age distribution

Under 35

11.1%#288

35–64

50.9%

65+

38.1%#14

Housing tenure

Renters

17.0%#T307

Owners

77.7%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

15.5%#47

High school

32.5%#23

College/trades

38.5%#121

Bachelor's

9.8%#334

Postgrad

3.7%#319

People & Economy

#96

French knowledge

27.1%

#320

Immigrants

2.6%

bottom 10%

#293

Recent arrivals

0.6%

bottom 25%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#326

Visible minority

1.8%

bottom 5%

#44

Indigenous

11.1%

top 25%

Govt. transfers

24.7%

top 5%

#311

Self-employed

9.2%

bottom 10%

Industry of employment

Public sector35.5%

Trades & transport21.3%

Manufacturing8.9%

Resources8.8%

Finance & prof4.4%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Moderate

Index: 20.0 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

Low

Index: 8 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Elevated

Index: 120.5 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$1.2M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$1.3M/yr

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