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ONTOSSUPOntario
Niagara South
F
Fred Davies
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal46%±6%·79% win
Conservative40%±5%·21% win
NDP7%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Retail & service
21.2%
#12 of 343top 5%
Median income
$45,600
Renters
27.6%
Under 35
13.9%
Top industry
Public sector · 25.2%
Area
823 km²
GE45 result
Margin
3.9%
Competitive
96.1/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare34.0% aged 65+
Employment14.8% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#288
Median income
$45,600
bottom 25%#233
Avg 2BR rent
$1293/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#29
Unemployment
14.8%
top 10%#146
Shelter stressed
21.1%
#177
Renters
27.6%
Age distribution
Under 35
13.9%#201
35–64
52.1%
65+
34.0%#56
Housing tenure
Renters
27.6%#177
Owners
72.3%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
8.9%#T193
High school
32.9%#18
College/trades
39.9%#91
Bachelor's
13.3%#267
Postgrad
5.0%#276
People & Economy
#152
French knowledge
9.1%
#196
Immigrants
13.5%
#236
Recent arrivals
1.4%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#219
Visible minority
9.4%
#112
Indigenous
4.5%
#T34
Govt. transfers
18.6%
top 10%#221
Self-employed
12.3%
Industry of employment
Public sector25.2%
Trades & transport20.7%
Manufacturing10.4%
Finance & prof8.2%
Resources1.8%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
Very highIndex: 61.6 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$13.9M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$4.4M/yr
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