← Map
NLSAFEAtlantic
Avalon
P
Paul Connors
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal62%±6%·>99% win
Conservative27%±5%·<1% win
NDP7%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Unemployment
14.3%
#32 of 343top 10%
Median income
$49,560
Renters
15.7%
Under 35
11.3%
Top industry
Public sector · 31.9%
Area
8,020 km²
GE45 result
Margin
22.6%
Competitive
77.4/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare32.3% aged 65+
Employment14.3% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#214
Median income
$49,560
#229
Avg 2BR rent
$1319/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T32
Unemployment
14.3%
top 10%#278
Shelter stressed
13.5%
bottom 25%#322
Renters
15.7%
bottom 10%Age distribution
Under 35
11.3%#T283
35–64
56.4%
65+
32.3%#83
Housing tenure
Renters
15.7%#322
Owners
84.3%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
10.0%#T163
High school
23.2%#174
College/trades
49.0%#21
Bachelor's
12.3%#286
Postgrad
5.5%#254
People & Economy
#294
French knowledge
4.6%
bottom 25%#338
Immigrants
1.3%
bottom 5%#T342
Recent arrivals
0.1%
bottom 5%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#341
Visible minority
1.0%
bottom 5%#174
Indigenous
2.7%
#T57
Govt. transfers
17.3%
top 25%#320
Self-employed
8.7%
bottom 10%Industry of employment
Public sector31.9%
Trades & transport23.2%
Finance & prof7.2%
Resources6.3%
Manufacturing4.9%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 38.6 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 2 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.1M/yr
Explore similar ridings
Central Nova
LPCNS
Similar population density and young adult share
Explore →Simcoe North
CPCON
Similar young adult share and population density
Explore →Niagara South
CPCON
Similar average rent and population density
Explore →South Shore—St. Margarets
LPCNS
Similar population density and young adult share
Explore →