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SKSAFEPrairies
Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek
K
Kelly Block
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative68%±6%·>99% win
Liberal21%±4%·<1% win
NDP8%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Drive to work
89.0%
#13 of 343top 5%
Median income
$55,300
Renters
13.5%
Under 35
15.7%
Top industry
Public sector · 25.4%
Area
24,157 km²
GE45 result
Margin
60.4%
Competitive
39.6/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare26.3% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#117
Median income
$55,300
#150
Avg 2BR rent
$1559/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T324
Unemployment
5.6%
bottom 10%#T264
Shelter stressed
14.3%
bottom 25%#335
Renters
13.5%
bottom 5%Age distribution
Under 35
15.7%#149
35–64
57.9%
65+
26.3%#200
Housing tenure
Renters
13.5%#335
Owners
84.8%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
9.6%#T175
High school
32.7%#20
College/trades
38.3%#125
Bachelor's
14.8%#232
Postgrad
4.6%#294
People & Economy
#T305
French knowledge
4.4%
bottom 25%#280
Immigrants
5.9%
bottom 25%#250
Recent arrivals
1.1%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#277
Visible minority
4.6%
bottom 25%#39
Indigenous
12.3%
top 25%#T214
Govt. transfers
11.4%
#30
Self-employed
19.9%
top 10%Industry of employment
Public sector25.4%
Trades & transport23.1%
Resources14.7%
Finance & prof7.5%
Manufacturing7.2%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 21.6 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 6 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$5.4M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.4M/yr
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