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BCSAFEBC
Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford
B
Brad Vis
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative49%±6%·99% win
Liberal34%±5%·1% win
NDP12%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Construction
11.9%
#21 of 343top 10%
Median income
$51,040
Renters
20.9%
Under 35
13.1%
Top industry
Public sector · 23.8%
Area
4,814 km²
GE45 result
Margin
20.1%
Competitive
79.9/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare25.5% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T191
Median income
$51,040
#122
Avg 2BR rent
$1644/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T295
Unemployment
6.7%
bottom 25%#158
Shelter stressed
20.4%
#264
Renters
20.9%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
13.1%#T232
35–64
61.4%
65+
25.5%#227
Housing tenure
Renters
20.9%#264
Owners
78.5%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
11.8%#105
High school
33.2%#T14
College/trades
33.2%#195
Bachelor's
14.3%#245
Postgrad
7.4%#204
People & Economy
#T297
French knowledge
4.6%
bottom 25%#138
Immigrants
23.1%
#T177
Recent arrivals
2.6%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#114
Visible minority
30.8%
#77
Indigenous
6.7%
top 25%#T194
Govt. transfers
11.9%
#63
Self-employed
18.0%
top 25%Industry of employment
Trades & transport23.9%#25
Public sector23.8%#232
Manufacturing8.6%#141
Finance & prof7.5%#T254
Resources6.6%#T69
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 22.2 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
HighIndex: 70 (avg = 100)
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
AverageIndex: 104.3 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$11.7M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$4.0M/yr
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