BCSAFEBC

Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford

Brad Vis

Conservative

Civic Tools

A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Projected vote share — current polls

Conservative49%±6%·98% win

Liberal34%±5%·2% win

NDP12%±5%·<1% win

Green3%±4%·<1% win

People's2%±3%·<1% win

Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win

Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations

Riding snapshot

Construction

11.9%

#21 of 343top 10%

Median income

$51,040

Renters

20.9%

Under 35

13.1%

Top industry

Public sector · 23.8%

Area

4,814 km²

GE45 result

Margin

20.1%

Competitive

79.9/100

Key issues

Seniors & healthcare25.5% aged 65+

Demographics · 2021 Census

Key Stats

#T191

Median income

$51,040

#122

Avg 2BR rent

$1644/mo

2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025

#T295

Unemployment

6.7%

bottom 25%

#158

Shelter stressed

20.4%

#264

Renters

20.9%

bottom 25%

Age distribution

Under 35

13.1%#T232

35–64

61.4%

65+

25.5%#227

Housing tenure

Renters

20.9%#264

Owners

78.5%

Education attainment (ages 25–64)

No diploma

11.8%#105

High school

33.2%#T14

College/trades

33.2%#195

Bachelor's

14.3%#245

Postgrad

7.4%#204

People & Economy

#T297

French knowledge

4.6%

bottom 25%

#138

Immigrants

23.1%

#T177

Recent arrivals

2.6%

Immigrants arrived 2016–21

#114

Visible minority

30.8%

#77

Indigenous

6.7%

top 25%

#T194

Govt. transfers

11.9%

#63

Self-employed

18.0%

top 25%

Industry of employment

Trades & transport23.9%

Public sector23.8%

Manufacturing8.6%

Finance & prof7.5%

Resources6.6%

Infrastructure & environment

Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.

Moderate

Index: 22.2 / 100

Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.

High

Index: 70 (avg = 100)

Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.

Average

Index: 104.3 (avg = 100)

Federal Spending

Avg federal spending

$11.7M/yr

Avg CCBF allocation

$4.0M/yr

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