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ONSWINGOntario
Etobicoke Centre
Y
Yvan Baker
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal57%±6%·>99% win
Conservative34%±5%·<1% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Median income
$68,100
#32 of 343top 10%
Renters
36.6%
Under 35
12.2%
Top industry
Public sector · 22.3%
Area
40 km²
GE45 result
Margin
9.6%
Competitive
90.4/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare32.2% aged 65+
Immigration & settlement42.5% immigrants
Employment12.7% unemployment
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#32
Median income
$68,100
top 10%#41
Avg 2BR rent
$2025/mo
top 25%2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T65
Unemployment
12.7%
top 25%#71
Shelter stressed
26.8%
top 25%#98
Renters
36.6%
Age distribution
Under 35
12.2%#T261
35–64
55.6%
65+
32.2%#85
Housing tenure
Renters
36.6%#98
Owners
63.4%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
6.0%#276
High school
18.8%#249
College/trades
26.2%#286
Bachelor's
31.5%#41
Postgrad
17.5%#58
People & Economy
#165
French knowledge
8.2%
#48
Immigrants
42.5%
top 25%#T82
Recent arrivals
5.7%
top 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#97
Visible minority
35.6%
#T310
Indigenous
0.6%
bottom 10%#T281
Govt. transfers
9.0%
bottom 25%#T79
Self-employed
17.1%
top 25%Industry of employment
Public sector22.3%
Finance & prof20.6%
Trades & transport14.4%
Manufacturing6.9%
Resources0.2%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 29.2 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$2.1M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$7.3M/yr
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