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ONSAFEOntario
Guelph
D
Dominique O'Rourke
Liberal
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Liberal59%±8%·>99% win
Conservative22%±5%·<1% win
Green11%±8%·<1% win
NDP5%±5%·<1% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Manufacturing
19.1%
#10 of 343top 5%
Median income
$53,550
Renters
36.9%
Under 35
20.0%
Top industry
Public sector · 26.2%
Area
68 km²
GE45 result
Margin
24.0%
Competitive
76.0/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare25.5% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T149
Median income
$53,550
#138
Avg 2BR rent
$1593/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T129
Unemployment
11.0%
#100
Shelter stressed
23.6%
#95
Renters
36.9%
Age distribution
Under 35
20.0%#74
35–64
54.5%
65+
25.5%#226
Housing tenure
Renters
36.9%#95
Owners
63.1%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
9.1%#185
High school
24.1%#157
College/trades
28.3%#255
Bachelor's
24.2%#117
Postgrad
14.3%#90
People & Economy
#153
French knowledge
9.0%
#139
Immigrants
22.8%
#133
Recent arrivals
4.1%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#151
Visible minority
23.2%
#225
Indigenous
1.8%
#T201
Govt. transfers
11.7%
#264
Self-employed
11.1%
bottom 25%Industry of employment
Public sector26.2%
Manufacturing19.1%
Trades & transport15.2%
Finance & prof12.1%
Resources1.2%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 42.1 / 100
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
Below averageIndex: 74.8 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$7.0M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$7.9M/yr
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