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ABSAFEPrairies
Lakeland
S
Shannon Stubbs
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative72%±6%·>99% win
Liberal17%±4%·<1% win
NDP6%±4%·<1% win
Green3%±3%·<1% win
People's3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Resource sector
21.0%
#7 of 343top 5%
Median income
$54,000
Renters
20.9%
Under 35
16.1%
Top industry
Public sector · 24.2%
Area
31,774 km²
GE45 result
Margin
68.8%
Competitive
31.2/100
Key issues
Energy & natural resources21.0% resource sector
Seniors & healthcare28.5% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#T140
Median income
$54,000
#245
Avg 2BR rent
$1251/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T202
Unemployment
9.4%
#198
Shelter stressed
18.1%
#263
Renters
20.9%
bottom 25%Age distribution
Under 35
16.1%#135
35–64
55.4%
65+
28.5%#163
Housing tenure
Renters
20.9%#263
Owners
77.1%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
14.2%#62
High school
30.4%#56
College/trades
41.0%#76
Bachelor's
11.3%#308
Postgrad
3.2%#337
People & Economy
#241
French knowledge
6.1%
#257
Immigrants
7.6%
#217
Recent arrivals
1.8%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#243
Visible minority
6.5%
#T27
Indigenous
15.8%
top 10%#181
Govt. transfers
12.7%
#17
Self-employed
21.7%
top 5%Industry of employment
Public sector24.2%
Trades & transport23.3%
Resources21.0%
Finance & prof6.1%
Manufacturing4.2%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
LowIndex: 18.3 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 2 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$3.4M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$0.1M/yr
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