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BCSWINGBC
Nanaimo—Ladysmith
T
Tamara Kronis
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative30%±6%·56% win
Liberal26%±6%·24% win
NDP24%±6%·14% win
Green18%±8%·6% win
People's2%±2%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Retail & service
21.2%
#12 of 343top 5%
Median income
$48,600
Renters
29.4%
Under 35
14.7%
Top industry
Public sector · 28.2%
Area
2,745 km²
GE45 result
Margin
7.7%
Competitive
92.3/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare35.4% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#229
Median income
$48,600
#T146
Avg 2BR rent
$1565/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T253
Unemployment
8.2%
#119
Shelter stressed
22.6%
#153
Renters
29.4%
Age distribution
Under 35
14.7%#180
35–64
49.9%
65+
35.4%#43
Housing tenure
Renters
29.4%#153
Owners
70.2%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
8.8%#T198
High school
28.5%#87
College/trades
36.3%#149
Bachelor's
16.8%#207
Postgrad
9.6%#T163
People & Economy
#203
French knowledge
6.8%
#184
Immigrants
14.6%
#T218
Recent arrivals
1.8%
Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#209
Visible minority
10.6%
#56
Indigenous
9.2%
top 25%#T111
Govt. transfers
15.2%
#66
Self-employed
17.9%
top 25%Industry of employment
Public sector28.2%
Trades & transport19.8%
Finance & prof9.5%
Manufacturing4.2%
Resources3.1%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
HighIndex: 39.7 / 100
Wildfire riskⓘHectares burned per km² of riding area, 2015–2024 (NRCan NFDB). Categories: Low < 10 · Moderate 10–50 · High 50–200 · Extreme 200+.
LowIndex: 9 (avg = 100)
Crime severityⓘStatsCan Crime Severity Index for the riding's CMA, rescaled so Canada's national average = 100. Categories: Below average < 80 · Average 80–110 · Elevated 110–140 · High severity 140+.
AverageIndex: 104.3 (avg = 100)
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$14.4M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$5.1M/yr
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