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ONLEANOntario
Perth—Wellington
J
John Nater
Conservative
Civic Tools
A federal riding is one of 343 geographic electoral districts in Canada. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons.
Projected vote share — current polls
Conservative45%±6%·60% win
Liberal43%±6%·40% win
NDP6%±6%·<1% win
Green3%±4%·<1% win
People's3%±3%·<1% win
Bloc Québécois0%±0%·<1% win
Bar = est. vote share (shading = p10–p90 range) · 2,000 simulations
Riding snapshot
Manufacturing
17.7%
#13 of 343top 5%
Median income
$50,160
Renters
26.3%
Under 35
15.8%
Top industry
Self-employed · 19.0%
Area
3,782 km²
GE45 result
Margin
12.2%
Competitive
87.8/100
Key issues
Seniors & healthcare31.4% aged 65+
Demographics · 2021 Census
Key Stats
#208
Median income
$50,160
#94
Avg 2BR rent
$1793/mo
2021 census variation scaled to CMHC Fall 2025
#T284
Unemployment
7.1%
bottom 25%#220
Shelter stressed
17.0%
#189
Renters
26.3%
Age distribution
Under 35
15.8%#148
35–64
52.9%
65+
31.4%#101
Housing tenure
Renters
26.3%#189
Owners
73.7%
Education attainment (ages 25–64)
No diploma
17.2%#32
High school
30.1%#60
College/trades
35.1%#170
Bachelor's
12.5%#T283
Postgrad
5.1%#273
People & Economy
#324
French knowledge
3.7%
bottom 10%#244
Immigrants
8.5%
#T262
Recent arrivals
1.0%
bottom 25%Immigrants arrived 2016–21
#273
Visible minority
4.8%
bottom 25%#246
Indigenous
1.5%
#T145
Govt. transfers
13.9%
#46
Self-employed
19.0%
top 25%Industry of employment
Trades & transport21.5%
Public sector18.9%
Manufacturing17.7%
Resources11.2%
Finance & prof8.1%
Infrastructure & environment
Flood riskⓘMean NRCan flood susceptibility index score for the riding (scale 0–100). Categories: Low < 20 · Moderate 20–35 · High 35–50 · Very High 50+.
ModerateIndex: 34.8 / 100
Federal Spending
Avg federal spending
$1.4M/yr
Avg CCBF allocation
$2.7M/yr
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